European NATO members are engaged in discussions about a significant increase in defence spending, potentially raising the alliance’s target from 2 to 3 percent of GDP. The talks, which began during a recent meeting of alliance foreign ministers, come amid growing concerns about regional security and the possible return of Donald Trump to the US presidency.
The proposed changes could be formalised at NATO’s annual summit in June 2024, though the dramatic increase would place considerable strain on national budgets. Currently, 23 of NATO’s 32 members are meeting the existing 2 percent target, marking a substantial improvement from 2018 when only six members achieved this benchmark.
Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary-general, whilst declining to specify exact figures, has indicated that future targets would need to be “much more” than the current 2 percent requirement. The preliminary discussions suggest a phased approach, with an interim target of 2.5 percent before reaching the full 3 percent by 2030.
The timing of these discussions appears strategic, particularly given the possibility of Trump’s return to the White House. During his previous presidency, Trump strongly criticised European members for insufficient defence spending, threatening US withdrawal from the alliance unless contributions increased.
Major European economies face significant challenges in meeting these enhanced targets. The UK, currently spending 2.3 percent of GDP on defence, has committed to reaching 2.5 percent, though without a specified timeline. Germany, having just achieved the 2 percent target for the first time, faces pressure to increase spending further amid warnings about Russian military capabilities.
Southern European nations face particular difficulties, with Italy currently at 1.49 percent and Spain at 1.28 percent of GDP. Both countries must balance NATO commitments against domestic economic constraints and EU fiscal rules. For comparison, the United States currently allocates approximately 3.4 percent of its GDP to defence spending.
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