British wage growth has accelerated unexpectedly to 5.2% in October, casting doubt on potential interest rate reductions from the Bank of England. The Office for National Statistics revealed this significant uptick was primarily driven by substantial pay rises in the manufacturing sector.
The private sector demonstrated robust growth with regular earnings increasing by 5.4%, whilst public sector wages grew at a more modest 4.3%. Manufacturing workers saw their wages climb to 6%, widening the gap between civil servants and private sector employees.
The labour market has shown resilience despite economic headwinds, with only a marginal decrease of 35,000 employees in November, following October’s increase of 24,000. Job vacancies remain above pre-pandemic levels at 818,000, though this represents a decline of 33,000 from the previous quarter.
City traders have adjusted their positions accordingly, with markets now indicating merely a 7% likelihood of an interest rate cut this Thursday, down from 15% earlier in the week. The current rate of 4.75% is projected to decrease to approximately 4.1% by December 2025.
Business organisations have expressed concern about impending challenges, including the rise in employer national insurance contributions and the scheduled increase in the national living wage. The British Chambers of Commerce reports that numerous firms anticipate implementing price increases and freezing recruitment plans to manage costs.
The retail sector continues its structural transformation, with the British Retail Consortium reporting 225,000 fewer retail positions compared to five years ago, reflecting the ongoing shift towards online shopping and increased automation in stores.
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