Britain’s statistical authority faces mounting pressure as response rates to a vital economic survey continue to decline, mirroring the troubling pattern observed in employment data collection. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been forced to implement emergency measures to maintain the integrity of its economic indicators.
The living costs and food survey, which provides essential data for GDP calculations and inflation measurements, has witnessed a dramatic decline in participation. Response rates have plummeted from 60 per cent in early 2000 to a mere 22 per cent in the financial year ending 2023, with only 4,061 households providing usable data—significantly below the traditional sample size of over 5,000.
This deterioration has raised serious concerns among economists. Adam Corlett, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, points out that recent spending data appears “implausible” when compared with national accounts. The situation has been exacerbated by staff shortages, causing delays in the release of crucial microdata typically published in September.
The ONS has responded by increasing its interview quota from 900 to approximately 1,240 in the third quarter of 2024. Plans are also underway to incorporate card-spending data into their verification processes by early 2025, though experts argue this may not fully compensate for the comprehensive view provided by the survey.
The implications for British economic policy are significant. The survey’s data feeds directly into the Retail Price Index calculations, affecting everything from bond repayments to student loans and train fares. The Office for Statistics Regulation had previously flagged “significant” concerns about the survey’s quality, urging substantial investment in improvements.
While the ONS is developing new digital tools, including an automated receipt scanning system scheduled for late 2025, progress has been slow. Budget constraints have hindered plans to streamline data collection through the merger of various surveys, leaving policymakers struggling to assess the true state of the British economy.
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