AI poised to replace 40 percent of US jobs by 2030 says McKinsey report

About 40 per cent of jobs in the United States could be replaced by artificial intelligence by 2030, according to new analysis from the McKinsey Global Institute. The consultancy’s report suggests that robots and AI agents have the potential to automate more than half of US work hours, both manual and cognitive, using technology already available if companies redesign their operational models accordingly.

The research highlights that roles most at risk involve drafting, information processing, and routine decision-making tasks which are increasingly within reach of AI capabilities. Sectors seeing slower recruitment, such as paralegals, administrative support, and programmers, reflect the early influence of automation. Jobs in warehouses or those operating machinery are also highly exposed to robotic automation, according to McKinsey.

By contrast, a third of US jobs exhibit significant resistance to automation due to uniquely human attributes. Occupations such as nursing, caring, and other roles in healthcare require physical presence, empathy, and dexterity which current AI cannot replicate. Building maintenance and repair, which rely on adaptability and on-the-spot problem-solving, are also considered difficult to automate.

The adoption of AI on a mass scale will depend on policy and investment choices, with workflow transformation expected to contribute as much as 2.9 trillion US dollars in annual economic value by 2030 if properly implemented. Human skills are expected to remain critical, with workers collaborating alongside AI, interpreting results, and guiding system activities rather than being fully supplanted.

McKinsey’s analysts predict that one in three jobs, such as those in teaching, will benefit from AI in a hybrid capacity, easing administrative burdens and content generation while leaving interpretation and decision-making to humans. The emergence of AI is also reportedly creating new roles, particularly in oversight, safety, and the management of AI solutions, as human judgement remains essential for supervision and support.

Some organisations are already citing tangible gains from deploying AI. The fintech firm Klarna plans to increase revenue without expanding its workforce, while legal and telecoms businesses such as Clifford Chance and BT have announced reductions in business service roles in response to greater utilisation of artificial intelligence. A recent Stanford study observed a 13 per cent drop in employment among early-career workers in the most AI-exposed jobs, while more experienced workers have been less affected. Microsoft’s research aligns with these findings, identifying professions such as translation, sales, and financial advisory as susceptible to automation but rating roles including nursing and water treatment operations as relatively secure.