Airlines Face Prolonged Aircraft Shortages and Ageing Fleets as Covid Legacy Disrupts Recovery

The civil aerospace sector faces a lengthy road to recovery due to supply chain turmoil following the Covid19 pandemic with the International Air Transport Association Iata warning that pre pandemic conditions may not return until at least 2031 Rapid growth in unfulfilled aircraft orders has left manufacturers and airlines struggling to keep pace with demand significantly impacting both operational efficiency and sustainability ambitions

Iata highlights that a record high of unmet demand for new aircraft is now constraining traffic growth forcing carriers to operate older and less efficient models This scenario is increasing operational costs while slowing industry progress towards environmental targets Supply chain bottlenecks and production delays mean airlines must hold onto ageing planes much longer than anticipated reducing the industrys ability to renew fleets with quieter and more fuel efficient technology

Globally as of June 2025 there are approximately 30300 commercial passenger aircraft in service with an additional 5250 planes in storage The market remains dominated by Boeing and Airbus who together account for 80 percent of the global fleet Single aisle narrow body models particularly Boeing 737s and the Airbus A320 family represent the backbone of short haul operations making up 61 percent of active aircraft Wide body twin aisle jets responsible for around 40 percent of passenger kilometres comprise just 20 percent of the global fleet Regional jets and turboprops are used less widely with Brazilian manufacturer Embraer making up 7 percent

The sector is experiencing an unprecedented rise in the average age of the worldwide fleet now nearing 15 years compared to under 13 years pre 2020 With current aircraft retirements at all time lows airlines lack the ability to offload older jets as they await new deliveries Under normal conditions an ongoing stream of new arrivals would allow for efficient cost management and steady progress towards lower emissions

This disruption has been exacerbated by both manufacturing and safety issues at Boeing and persistent supply chain difficulties at Airbus Based on Iata calculations had normal growth trends continued from 2019 through 2026 global airlines would have taken delivery of more than 16000 new jets with the actual figure expected to fall short by over 5000 aircraft This gap delays both cost efficiencies and environmental benefits intended by modernisation

The pattern of delays and equipment shortfalls underscores the urgent need for action within the industry Quickened recovery in aircraft production remains a critical test for manufacturers and a primary concern for airlines seeking to manage costs meet demand and achieve sustainability objectives in the decade ahead