BP predicted that global carbon emissions will stop rising by mid-2020 due to a boom in wind and solar energy.
In its influential outlook report, the energy company found that oil consumption will rise by approximately 2m barrels per day and peak at around 102m in about 2025.
The first scenario depicts the current trajectory of the global energy transition, while the second shows how to achieve the global net zero target by 2050.
BP has predicted that in both scenarios, carbon emissions will peak by the middle of this decade due to the rapid expansion of solar and wind power.
The report outlines a number of different paths for future gas demand, which is a key area for growth for energy companies, including BP, in recent years.
According to the net zero scenario in the report, gas consumption would reach its peak by the middle of the decade, before falling to half levels by 2050 compared to 2022. The current trajectory indicates that gas demand will grow through the forecast and expand by about a fifth in 2050.
The scenarios show that the demand for liquefied gas (which is cooled before being transported by ship) will increase by 40% or 30% over 2022.
The report suggests that oil consumption will be higher than BP’s earlier forecasts in 2030s. This would threaten climate targets.
According to the oil company, its predictions for the current trajectory of the global temperature, including climate policies that are already in place, show the world will breach the carbon budgets that prevent global temperatures from exceeding 2C over preindustrial levels.
According to the current trajectory, oil demand will fall to 97.8m bbls aday in 2035. This is 5% more than BP’s forecasts from last year. Net zero predicts that demand will stay at 80.2m in 2035. This is an increase of 10% over last year’s forecast.
BP stated that oil will continue to play a “significant role in the global system of energy for the next 15-20 years”.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sparked a spike in energy prices, the company backed down on its pledge to reduce oil and gas production from 2019 levels by 40% to , a 25% decrease.
The findings of the outlook are likely to fuel fears that global transition away from fossil energy towards clean power is slowing down, partly due to increasing energy demand in developing countries.
Spencer Dale said that the world is in an “energy-addition phase”, during which both the consumption of low-carbon fuels such as renewables, and fossil fuels are increasing.
Spencer said that in order to limit the rise of emissions, low carbon sources must be introduced at a rate that matches the growth in global energy consumption.
BP’s outlook projects that wind and solar energy capacity will grow eightfold in 2050, under current climate policies. It also predicts a 14-fold increase under its “net zero” scenario compared to 2022.
Over the next decade the expansion of renewable energy projects will be concentrated in China, and in developed economies. This is estimated to account for between 30% and 45% of new capacity in BP’s scenarios.
The company stated that the rapid expansion of wind and solar energy will allow further reductions in technology costs and energy costs, which will support more renewable projects.
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