Britain’s farmer’s revolt could be a Brexit backlash which will hurt Rishi Sunak

The Tories’ slim chances of staying in power are at risk.

has been sweeping Europe with farmers’ protests for several months.

Recently, in Thessaloniki, Greece, people dumped apples and chestnuts on the street. Farmers in the country are upset that the government didn’t honour its promise to compensate for lost income following a series of bad weather.

Farmers in Germany took to the street after the government announced plans to phase-out a tax exemption on agricultural diesel. Portugal, Poland and France were also affected by protests.

It was then only a question of time until British farmers joined their Continental counterparts in the streets. The protests are minor for the moment. A go-slow demonstration in Dover, involving 40 tractors is unlikely to give Rishi Sunak many sleepless night.

The Government, however, would be foolish if it underestimated the damage that could result if the protests grew, especially given the nature and concerns of the farmers.

The revolt against cheap imports of food could spiral into a loud and public Brexit backlash, which would help to crush any slim chances that the Tories still have at remaining in power.

The warnings from the organisers about how easily things could escalate should be taken very seriously by Number 10. Kent, a Brexit-stronghold, was chosen as the battleground for the protests. Tory MPs are already worried about an electoral bloodbath in the upcoming general election.

Some practitioners do not believe that Brexit is the sole factor contributing to farming becoming unsustainable. Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers’ Union (NFU), said that extreme weather and “unsustainable” production costs had put farmers in a difficult position. Low prices at supermarkets are also a complaint.

The slogans daubed on trailers and other equipment in Dover, however, made it clear that many farmers were most upset about this: “No cheap imports”, and “No to [New Zealand] Lamb”, said the signs.

Jeffrey Gibson, a farmer, took to Facebook in order to remind people of the dismay that farmers feel about the government’s Post-Brexit Sustainable Farming Incentive Scheme which pays farmers according to the amount they give back to the environment.

The program has been attacked as confusing and for offering farms little to no incentive to grow food. This is a pretty massive own goal, given the weaknesses in the UK food system that were exposed during the pandemic.

Farmers are dismayed at the idea that they no longer need to produce food for the country. This could have serious consequences for the food security and the future of agriculture in general, as more people give up a lifestyle that has been passed down through generations.

The government insists it is on the side with farmers. In a press release issued in response to Dover’s standoff, the government claimed that it “firmly supports our farmers”. The Ministers are “ensuring British agriculture is at the centre of British trade” by placing agriculture at the forefront in any deals that we negotiate.

Tell that to the people who complain that they are unable to compete against the cheap imports of food that have been flooding the country since the Government has rushed to sign several free trade agreements post-Brexit.

One TV station broadcast a report on how the free trade agreement was more beneficial to New Zealand than to Britain’s agriculture industry.

The National Farmers’ Union of Scotland accused the UK Government of using agricultural concerns and access to food and beverage sector during negotiations as “cheap negotiating chips” in order to secure “more lucrative access to other sectors”.

Some farmers consider the Australia trade agreement to be worse. NFU’s Batters described it as a “real breach of confidence” for farmers after Boris Johnson signed a zero-tariff and zero-quota agreement that gave away more access to Britain’s beef markets than his senior colleagues including Liz Truss, then the international trade secretary, had ever imagined. According to a report, Australia’s chief trade negotiator Dan Tehan told Truss with glee that Johnson “conceded the entire kingdom”.

Sunak’s concerns reveal the tension he is currently experiencing. Brexiteers are often free-traders who have been sickened by EU subsidies and distortions. Others voted to leave the EU in the hope that Britain would protect them from global market forces they believed threatened their way of living.

The government must find a solution to the feeling of betrayal that the rural voters now have. Long have the Conservatives been able count on rural votes. A new poll shows that more than half of rural English seats currently held by the Conservatives are likely to shift their support to Labour.

A group of MPs has suggested that inheritance tax be removed from farmland where farmers have improved natural landscapes. However, this may not be sufficient. The answer is not to raise prices. Families are not keen to pay more when consumers feel squeezed.

France’s experience is a wake-up call. French farmers blocked major roads leading into Paris, warning that the goal was to starve Parisians. That’s it.”

Sunak’s best strategy to deal with the growing fractures in the Brexit coalition is to drive economic growth. As food inflation declines, consumers won’t want to pay more to appease farmers when they are feeling poorer.

Unfortunately, the GDP numbers that will be released in this week’s report are likely to reveal a country which has fallen into recession. This could be the moment of truth: a prime-minister has little to offer without growth.