Fresh economic data reveals the UK economy has ground to a halt amidst growing concerns over tax increases announced in Rachel Reeves’s recent budget. The private sector witnessed activity plummet to its lowest point in 13 months during November, with businesses scaling back both recruitment and capital investment.
The substantial £25 billion tax increase, particularly the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions, has sparked widespread criticism from the business community. Major retailers have issued stark warnings about potential job losses, price hikes, and shop closures as direct consequences of these fiscal measures.
Economic indicators paint a concerning picture, with the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showing output dropping from 51.8 to 49.9 in November, falling below the crucial 50-point threshold that distinguishes growth from contraction. The manufacturing sector’s performance was particularly worrying, recording a nine-month low of 48.6.
The pound sterling responded negatively to these developments, reaching its lowest value against the US dollar since May, while banking stocks experienced notable declines. Retail sales data compounded these concerns, showing significant weakness in consumer spending preceding the budget announcement.
Business leaders are grappling with mounting operational costs, including increased wage bills, technology expenses, and energy costs. Many firms have indicated they will need to raise consumer prices to maintain profit margins before the scheduled increase in employer national insurance contributions takes effect in April 2025.
The Chancellor maintains that growth remains the government’s primary focus, stating that the budget provides necessary stability for business growth. However, economic forecasts suggest these tax increases could hamper economic growth over the next five years, raising questions about the effectiveness of the current fiscal strategy.
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