Leading experts in the UK have warned that there will be a “tsunami” of cancers missed, following an international study which found that diagnosis rates dropped sharply during this pandemic.
The preliminary figures of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership were presented to the delegates at World Cancer Congress, Geneva. They compared data from Australia, Canada and Denmark on cancer diagnoses and stages in Australia, Canada and Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand and Norway, and in the UK before and after the pandemic.
The results revealed that the UK had experienced the largest and most sustained declines in lung, breast and colorectal cancers, as well as skin cancers, during the year 2020. Data for Northern Ireland, Wales and other countries showed just how poorly they performed compared to the others. Data for England and Scotland is still being collected but it was expected that they would be just as bad as other UK nations.
All countries saw a decline in the number of cases diagnosed during the peak pandemic. However, the majority had recovered within a year. Wales and Northern Ireland, on the other hand, had not recovered from their low diagnosis rates at the end of 2020.
According to the study, between April 2020 and July 2021, the number of breast cancer diagnoses in Northern Ireland and Wales will drop by 35%, while they’ll fall by 24% in Norway, and 14% for Denmark. In the same period, lung cancer cases in Northern Ireland and Wales decreased by 16%, while they declined by 10% in Norway, or 1% New Zealand.
In the month with the highest number of missed cases, Northern Ireland and Wales missed 44% of breast and lung cancer cases. Colorectal cancer diagnosis also dropped sharply.
In part, this decline was due to the suspension screening programs. Stage 1 breast cancer diagnosis in Northern Ireland and Wales decreased by 44% and respectively 51%.
As a result, cancer experts expect to see more patients with advanced and late-stage cancers.
Mark Lawler is professor of digital healthcare at Queen’s University Belfast, and chair of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. He said that these data were a “shocking wake-up call” and that they provided the evidence that UK could expect a tsunami in missed cancers, and that a possible shift in stage may lead to cancers more aggressive and more difficult to treat. “And we’re still a long way from meeting the 62 day target for treating cancer, which can only compound the problem.”
Prof Pat Price is a leading oncologist, and the co-founder and director of the Catch up with Cancer Campaign. He said, “These numbers are a timely confirmation of this colossal crisis.” We will see more cancer patients being diagnosed later and facing longer treatment delays if we don’t take urgent action.
The study shows that we have not recovered from our backlog of cancer diagnoses. As Lord Darzi’s NHS new report highlights, this does not need to be the case. “Now is the time to implement and deliver a dedicated cancer recovery program.”
Naser Turabi is the director of evidence, implementation and policy at Cancer Research UK. He said, “These findings show that the UK’s health system is less resilient than other countries, such as New Zealand. This makes it more susceptible to the effects of Covid.” It could be a serious problem for cancer patients who were delayed in diagnosis due to overstretched service.
A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “We acknowledge the additional pressures on the NHS due to the pandemic but it is unacceptable that many people have had to wait so long for a diagnosis and treatment of cancer.
Lord Darzi’s Report showed how long patients continue to wait for a cancer diagnoses. The government is determined that this will change as it creates the 10-year plan for reforming the NHS to make it fit and ready for the future.
We will make the NHS better at detecting cancer early, diagnosing and treating it sooner, so that more patients can survive these horrible diseases.
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