As fears of a recession grip global markets, investors are turning to bonds as a safe haven. More than $66 billion has poured into fixed income funds since the start of July, with US Treasuries and other highly rated debt staging a powerful rally during last week’s equity rout. The shift in investor sentiment comes as expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks have grown.
The weak US jobs report in early August, which showed an unexpected rise in the jobless rate and fewer job additions than expected, has fueled these expectations. Traders in the futures market now anticipate the Fed will cut interest rates by just over one percentage point by year-end. This environment of slowing growth, falling inflation, and expected rate cuts has made bonds an attractive option for investors seeking protection against a potential recession.
Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, believes that Treasury bonds offer the best protection against a downside scenario like a recession. The appeal of fixed income has been further bolstered by the high yields available in safer bonds, such as investment-grade credit and Treasuries, without the threat of further rises in Fed borrowing costs.
Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, anticipates more money will flow into fixed income as investors seek attractive yields and returns. Corporate debt has also held up well during the recent market volatility, particularly in the high-quality investment-grade credit market. Even “junk”-rated bonds have shown more resilience than equities.
However, some market participants remain cautious about the implications of an economic slowdown for corporate bonds. The outlook for inflation will likely prove crucial in determining the future direction of bond markets. An unexpected rise in inflation could see investors reining in their rate cut bets, potentially hurting bonds.
Nonetheless, many believe that bonds are back and will continue to attract investors seeking a hedge against market uncertainty.
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