Ireland’s political landscape appears set for continuity as Sunday’s general election positions the incumbent coalition for another term in power, backed by substantial corporation tax revenues that have enabled generous public spending.
Centrist party Fianna Fáil is poised to secure the largest number of parliamentary seats, likely continuing its coalition with conservative Fine Gael. The partnership, which has dominated Irish politics throughout the past century, is expected to approach the crucial 88-seat threshold required for government formation.
The electoral outcome reflects voter confidence in economic stability, with Ireland projecting a €24bn budget surplus this year, predominantly driven by an anticipated €30bn in corporation tax from multinational technology and pharmaceutical companies based in the country.
Support for opposition party Sinn Féin has declined compared to the 2020 election, securing slightly under one-fifth of first preference votes. Despite claims of breaking the traditional political duopoly, Sinn Féin lacks sufficient allies to form a viable government.
The economic outlook carries risks, particularly from Donald Trump’s proposals to reduce US corporation tax to match Ireland’s 15 per cent rate, potentially affecting American companies’ European operations. This threat underscores the importance of political stability in the current climate.
Voter turnout remained modest at just below 60 per cent, while both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael experienced relatively minor losses compared to historical performance levels. Coalition negotiations are expected to extend towards year-end, with discussions focusing on the distribution of power, including the position of Taoiseach currently held by Fine Gael’s Simon Harris.
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