According to a major study directed at politicians, the world already has enough fossil-fuel projects planned to meet forecasts of global energy consumption up to 2050. Governments should therefore stop issuing oil, coal and gas licences.
Researchers at University College London (UCL) and the International Institute for Sustainable Development(IISD), said Thursday that if governments make the promised changes to prevent the world from exceeding its climate targets, no new fossil-fuel projects will be required.
The data provided what they called “a rigorous scientific foundation” for governments around the world to begin a controlled decline of fossil fuel industries and ban new projects. They also encouraged investment in cleaner energy alternatives.
Researchers said that by establishing a “clear and immediately demand”, political leaders could set a new standard for the future of fossil-fuels. The industry would then be held to account “immediately” against this norm.
The paper, published in Science, analysed global energy forecasts, including oil and gas demand, and coal and gas-fired electric power, using a wide range of scenarios developed for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which limited global warming to 1.5C over pre-industrial levels.
The study found that a future with net zero energy production would not require new fossil fuel extraction or new coal and gas fired power generation.
The paper will likely reignite the criticism directed at the UK Conservative government. This government has pledged to offer hundreds oil and gas exploration licences in order to boost North Sea industry. This policy has become a major dividing point between the Conservatives and the Labour Party before the general election on 4 July.
The Labour Party has promised to stop new North Sea licenses when it takes power. It also plans to raise taxes on profits from existing oil and natural gas fields in order to fund green energy projects via a government-owned firm, Great British Energy.
Dr Steve Pye is the co-author of a report by the UCL Energy Institute. He said, “Importantly our research establishes a rigourous scientific basis for the proposal norm, showing that there are no new fossil fuel projects needed.”
Pye stated that “the clarity this standard brings should help policy to focus on the target the required ambitious scale of renewable and cleaner energy investment while managing the decline in fossil fuel infrastructure in a fair and just manner.”
The report elaborated on the work of the International Energy Agency, which warned in recent decades that there were no new fossil-fuel projects compatible to the global goal of building a net zero-energy system.
The IEA ruled-out any new investments in fossil fuels projects with a long lead time, but acknowledged the need for continued investment in existing oil and natural gas assets as well as projects that have already been approved.
Fergus Green from UCL’s department of political sciences said, “Our research draws on past shifts in ethical norms such as slavery and nuclear weapon testing. These cases demonstrate that norms are more effective when they contain simple demands for which powerful actors can immediately be held accountable.
“Complex and long-term goals such as ‘net zero emission by 2050’ do not have these features. But ‘no fossil fuel projects’, is a clear, immediate demand that can be used to judge all governments and the fossil energy industry.
Chris Stark said that the concept of “net zero” had been used as a political slogan to start a dangerous culture war on climate change and it may be best dropped.
Stark stated that he was relaxed about dropping the slogan if it were only to be a slogan or a placeholder for a variety of cultural issues. “We use it to target scientific research, but not as an emblem that we display on every program.”
Green said that a government’s political position on new fossil fuel projects “should serve as a litmus-test” to determine its seriousness in tackling climate change. He added that if a government is allowing fossil fuel projects to continue, it’s not serious.
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