The EU vote is too close to call, and the Moldovan president has condemned ‘assaults’ on democracy

On Sunday, Moldova’s president Maia Sandu blasted “foreign” forces for their “unprecedented attack” on democracy. A referendum on EU membership was still too close to call with only a few thousands ballots remaining to be counted. Early on Monday morning, the “yes’ vote was leading by 79 votes, out of 1.5mn total votes. The country is still awaiting the results of 40 polling stations located overseas.

Weeks before the election, authorities warned of Russian interference. They described their battle against a network of Kremlin agents and a flood of illegal money meant to buy votes. Sandu, whose referendum was portrayed as an historic choice between returning to Russia and taking a western path for the 2.5 million former Soviets, failed to receive enough votes in the presidential race that took place the same day.

Sandu made a brief statement to the media at her election headquarters on Sunday evening, lasting less than two minutes, in which she said that her government had proof that “criminal group aimed to purchase 300,000 votes” for the dual vote.

Sandu stated that “working together with foreign powers hostile to our nation’s interests, [they] attacked our country using tens and millions of Euros, lies, propaganda, and deception.” She added, “We won’t back down in our fight for democracy and freedom.” “We will wait for the final result and then make a firm decision.”

After midnight Sunday, preliminary results showed that 53% of voters were against joining the EU. Sandu had pledged to finish the process by 2030, after launching his bid two and a quarter years ago, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Even with 80 percent of votes counted, it was still too close to call due to the narrow margin and the possible impact of Moldovan diaspora voters living in western countries. Sandu was surprised by the close result of the referendum, as polls consistently showed two-thirds or more of the population favored joining the EU.

This is likely to allow Russia to further divide the country, particularly as opposition to Sandu and to the EU seems to be concentrated in rural areas and ethnic minorities.

Preliminary results show that only 5 percent of Gagauzia voters, a region of a minority which declared independence after the fall Soviet Union, but later accepted autonomy within Moldova, voted for the EU.

Law enforcement warned in the lead-up to the voting day about the Russian campaign that they could see building to sway votes, estimating $100mn spent on voter bribery and influence operation.

The police reported that a series of schemes were being used to bribe voters. These included the use of money brought by “money mules”, who arrived on passenger flights with large amounts cash from Moscow.

Sandu, whose bid for a new term was supported by only 38 percent of voters as of early Monday morning, will have to now face Alexandr Stoianoglo in a subsequent round, which will take place next month. Stoianoglo had received 29 percent of the votes at the same time.

Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general and political novice, was supported in his candidacy by the pro Russian socialist party. The race could be very tight next month if other candidates with small shares of votes throw their weight behind Stoianoglo.

Sandu and supporters hoped that a resounding yes vote would be a sign of a clear decision made by Moldovans regarding their future. At this stage of the accession process they were not required to hold a referendum. Some diplomats and observers characterized it as a gamble.

Her team said, however, that they wanted to take advantage of a time when the president and parliament both supported the EU, and the bloc was prompted by Russia’s invasion in Ukraine to accelerate Chisinau’s bid. The EU just announced a EUR1.8bn package to support Moldova on its path towards accession.