A stark warning has emerged from a Commons committee regarding the two-year postponement in reforming the UK’s official labour market statistics. The delay represents a significant setback that could lead both the Bank of England and the government to make poorly informed economic decisions.
Dame Meg Hillier, who chairs the Treasury select committee, expressed grave concerns about the situation, noting that the absence of reliable employment data could severely compromise critical policy decisions. The delay means accurate figures for employment, unemployment, and labour force participation won’t be available until 2027.
Sir Ian Diamond, the national statistician heading the UK Statistics Authority, revealed that despite increasing face-to-face interview incentives from £10 to £50, public participation remains concerningly low. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) continues to face challenges with response rates, which plummeted from 36 per cent to 15 per cent during the pandemic.
The implications of this data deficit are far-reaching. The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, tasked with setting interest rates, must now rely on alternative measures to track employment trends. This situation has prompted frustration from the Bank’s governor, who acknowledged uncertainty about the true size of the UK’s workforce.
Recent ONS adjustments, accounting for the 1.1 per cent growth in working-age population recorded in 2022, paint a concerning picture. The employment rate stands at 74.6 per cent, while labour force inactivity sits at 22.1 per cent. More worryingly, the UK’s productivity metrics show worse performance than initially estimated, with output per hour falling by 0.9 per cent in the three months to June.
The Resolution Foundation’s independent analysis suggests the employment situation might be more positive than official figures indicate, estimating overall employment to be nearly one million higher than ONS data shows. However, this discrepancy only underscores the urgent need for reliable official statistics to guide economic policy effectively.
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