Autumn Budget 2025 What Rachel Reeves Could Announce

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is poised to deliver her second budget on 26 November 2025, in what promises to be a pivotal fiscal event for the UK government. Reeves has delayed presenting her tax and spending plans in order to provide the Office for Budget Responsibility ample time to thoroughly assess Labour’s strategy aimed at boosting economic growth. These tactics include ambitious infrastructure investments and partial trade deals with the European Union, India, and the United States.

The Chancellor faces the immediate challenge of finding an additional £20-30 billion to satisfy fiscal rules, while also maintaining the slim £9.9 billion headroom recorded in the spring statement. Whitehall insiders suggest that the administration is exploring a suite of tax reforms targeting accumulated wealth, property, and the financial sector as routes to bridge this gap without increasing VAT, income tax, or national insurance rates.

The property tax system could be on the verge of a significant shake-up. Ministers are reportedly considering abolishing both council tax and stamp duty, to be replaced with a progressive annual property tax. Such a tax, levied at a higher rate on those with the most valuable homes, would update the system to reflect the housing market of today, not valuations that have remained unchanged since 1991. Advisers such as Tim Leunig have advocated a scheme taxing homes worth over £500,000, aligning property taxes more closely with current values, especially in hotspots like London and the south-east.

Attention has also turned to capital gains tax exemptions. Proposals under review suggest homeowners selling a primary residence could see this exemption curtailed, with high-rate taxpayers paying 24 per cent and basic-rate taxpayers 18 per cent on property sales profits. This measure, described as a ‘mansion tax,’ would focus the burden on those benefiting most from soaring house prices.

Landlords may face fresh fiscal scrutiny, with plans under discussion to extend national insurance contributions to rental income. Applying a basic 20 per cent rate, and an extra 8 per cent for income above £50,270, would target buy-to-let investors and is forecast by analysts to raise up to £2 billion annually. This mirrors recent calls by the Resolution Foundation for a new ‘class’ of national insurance for property landlords.

The banks are not immune to budget speculation either. Strong profits, spurred by three years of elevated interest rates, have led some commentators to describe the Bank of England’s payments to commercial lenders as an unfair subsidy ripe for a windfall tax. Proposals on the table include taxing banks’ income on reserves held at the central bank, and raising the lender surcharge from 3 per cent to as much as 8 per cent. These measures could bring in an additional £1-2 billion per year.

Reeves remains committed to her pledge not to raise income tax rates, but a continued freeze on tax thresholds is anticipated through to 2029-30. This move, already branded a ‘stealth tax’, is expected to net an extra £10 billion and will significantly increase the number of Britons liable for top-rate tax as inflation drives up nominal earnings.

There is also speculation that a new gambling duty, targeting profits of online casinos and high-stakes betting, could yield upwards of £3 billion a year. Prominent figures, including Gordon Brown, have voiced support for this approach as a way to fund policies such as reversing the two-child benefit cap, while further ‘sin taxes’ on alcohol and processed foods remain under active consideration.

Rachel Reeves’s 2025 autumn budget is set against a backdrop of fiscal constraints and expectations for a fairer distribution of the tax burden. The choices made in November will be felt widely, shaping the nation’s economic narrative for years to come.