The Azerbaijani state oil and gas enterprise is set to significantly boost its fossil fuel production whilst simultaneously serving as the host nation for the UN COP29 climate summit, according to fresh analysis.
Data examined by campaign organisation Global Witness, drawing from independent consultancy Rystad Energy, reveals that 44% of Socar’s production will stem from new oil and gas sources by 2050, positioning it as the second-highest producer among national oil companies globally.
The timing of this expansion raises eyebrows as Mukhtar Babayev, president of COP29, champions the global initiative to restrict temperature increases to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. This stance appears at odds with Socar’s recent activities, including a £468 million investment in UAE gas projects, marking its first international upstream venture.
A COP29 spokesperson defended the nation’s position, emphasising Azerbaijan’s strategic role as a natural gas supplier to Europe, particularly following the 2022 supply disruptions. The spokesperson highlighted the country’s parallel commitment to expanding renewable energy exports for regional and European markets.
The situation mirrors last year’s COP28 in Dubai, where the UAE faced similar scrutiny over its fossil fuel ambitions. Richard Kinley, former executive secretary of the UN’s climate change division, described the scenario as “deeply troubling,” pointing to the apparent conflict between fossil fuel interests and climate leadership.
European diplomats report that Azerbaijani officials have integrated gas deal discussions into climate talks, primarily focusing on replacing Russian volumes currently flowing through Ukraine. This development comes as Hungarian and Slovakian companies approach agreements with Azerbaijan, though energy analysts caution these arrangements might merely disguise continued Russian supply channels.
The Chatham House think tank suggests Azerbaijan’s position as COP29 host might serve to maintain the financial viability of its oil and gas reserves by influencing global energy transition discussions, highlighting the complex interplay between economic interests and climate commitments.
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