Battery Electric Cars Predicted to Overtake Diesels on British Roads by 2030

Battery electric vehicles are predicted to surpass diesel cars on Britain’s roads by 2030, according to recent analysis suggesting that London will become the first UK city to eliminate diesel vehicles from its streets.

The number of diesel cars on British roads declined to 9.9 million by June of last year, representing a 21% reduction from the peak of 12.4 million vehicles, according to research conducted by New AutoMotive, a think tank specialising in the electric vehicle transition. Whilst electric car sales continue to expand rapidly, the pace remains somewhat slower than manufacturers had initially anticipated. The transition to cleaner commercial vehicles has proven more challenging, with diesel van numbers continuing to climb to a record 4.4 million units.

The UK experienced a significant shift towards diesel vehicles during the 2000s, driven by government tax incentives that favoured these engines. Diesel powertrains typically demonstrate greater efficiency than petrol alternatives, consuming less fuel and producing lower carbon dioxide emissions. However, they generate higher levels of nitrous oxides, which pose substantial health risks.

The automotive landscape transformed dramatically following the 2015 revelation that Volkswagen had developed software to manipulate emissions testing, initiating the Dieselgate scandal. This controversy ultimately cost the German manufacturer approximately €30 billion (£26 billion) globally in fines, compensation payments and legal expenses. Subsequent analysis this year indicated that the additional emissions resulting from cheat devices installed by Volkswagen and other manufacturers contributed to thousands of premature deaths and asthma cases.

Diesel car sales consequently collapsed, falling to fewer than 100,000 units during the first 11 months of 2025. Nevertheless, the proportion of diesel vehicles on British roads will decline gradually, as numerous cars purchased during peak diesel years are only now reaching the end of their operational life.

Battery electric vehicles accounted for merely 4% of UK cars on the road last year, compared with 32% diesel and 58% petrol vehicles, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), the industry’s primary trade association. The remaining 6% consisted of hybrid vehicles, which predominantly combine smaller battery packs with petrol engines.

The declining diesel population should deliver meaningful benefits for urban centres where particulate matter concentrations typically prove most problematic as older vehicles are retired. This transition will inevitably affect petrol station operators, with many expected to discontinue diesel fuel supplies.

London is anticipated to become the first UK location without registered diesel cars or vans, primarily attributable to the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez), which imposes charges on non-compliant, higher-polluting vehicles. Diesel numbers are also decreasing rapidly throughout Scotland’s central belt, encompassing Edinburgh and Glasgow, both of which have implemented low-emission zones.

The Guardian reports that Ben Nelmes, chief executive of New AutoMotive, stated that eliminating diesel usage remains essential for improving air quality in Britain’s congested urban areas. He highlighted that the UK imports billions of pounds worth of diesel annually, creating substantial dependence on foreign suppliers. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles promises cleaner air, reduced noise pollution and significantly lower operating costs.

The analysis revealed that urban residents appear to be selling diesel vehicles to buyers in rural locations. Regarding commercial vehicles, whilst diesel van numbers have increased over the past decade, new diesel van sales likely peaked before the pandemic, suggesting that on-road numbers will eventually decline.

Matt Finch, an environmental policy specialist who co-authored the report, observed that the world is departing from the diesel era. He acknowledged diesel’s historical utility whilst emphasising that the technology has reached the end of its relevant period.