Britain Faces Defence Weakness as Welfare Spending Surges

Britain is at risk of undermining its own security by prioritising welfare spending over defence readiness, according to former Army general Sir Richard Barrons. Sir Richard, who co-authored the Government’s strategic defence review, has highlighted that rearmament efforts are progressing at only half the required pace, attributing this to the Ministry of Defence suffering from chronic underfunding. He has called for a national debate on the difficult choices needed to properly resource the armed forces, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to allocate an additional £15 billion to welfare payments.

Sir Richard emphasised that if the UK continues to enlarge welfare outlays at the expense of security and defence, this choice could be seen in hindsight as a historic act of self-harm. He stressed that without a sincere public discussion about scaling back welfare commitments, it will be impossible to reallocate sufficient resources toward national defence. Despite Labour’s summer pledge to enhance armed forces’ war-fighting readiness and a NATO commitment to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035, the timeline is seen as inadequate given the possibility of European conflict as soon as 2027.

Current spending plans outline an increase from 2.4 per cent of GDP this year to 2.5 per cent by 2027, but Sir Richard warned that the Ministry of Defence is already grappling with budget overshoots and is searching for £2 billion in cuts to avoid exceeding its allocation. He cautioned that, in practical terms, the UK is moving at half the pace required by the mounting security risks and will take twice as long as necessary to reach necessary defence benchmarks due to lack of political and societal will.

The former commander pointed to lack of public appetite for higher defence expenditure, noting that voters are more concerned with maintaining comprehensive welfare provisions, including pensions and other social benefits. The lack of public pressure makes it politically unpalatable for leaders to shift resources away from welfare and toward national security. The frustration within the defence establishment reflects a growing disconnect between expected military responsibilities and the Government’s financial commitments.

Recent announcements by the Defence Secretary about new manufacturing initiatives for artillery supplies have not fully alleviated concerns, as related documents advise companies to anticipate most demand for these materials originating overseas rather than from the UK itself. The Ministry of Defence’s budget is projected to decline slightly from £60.2 billion in 2024-25 to £60.1 billion in 2025-26, rebounding only in subsequent years. By contrast, welfare expenditure is forecast to hit £373.4 billion annually by the end of the decade, with a significant share devoted to pensioner and health benefits. The upcoming budget is expected to increase welfare by a further £15 billion, including lifts in child benefits and cost-of-living adjustments to core support programmes.

A Ministry of Defence spokesperson reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to implementing the outcomes of the Strategic Defence Review, describing the current approach as the largest sustained real-terms increase in defence funding since the Cold War; still, many in the strategic community challenge whether this is sufficient given the evolving threat landscape and the pace at which capability improvements are being made.