British retailers are steeling themselves for what industry experts predict will be a restrained festive trading period, with mounting concerns over household energy costs and housing expenses weighing heavily on consumer sentiment. The recent autumn budget has cast additional shadows over spending prospects.
Trading activity has been notably subdued leading up to the American-inspired Black Friday promotional period, which falls a week later than 2023. Shoppers have demonstrated strategic restraint, postponing gift purchases in anticipation of securing better deals. Data from the e-commerce trade body IMRG, monitoring over 200 online retailers, reveals sales declined 11.7% in the week commencing 10 November, marking the year’s poorest weekly performance.
The clothing sector faces particular challenges, as evidenced by JD Sports’ recent profit warning, attributed partially to October’s mild weather and intense promotional competition. Online fashion retailers Asos and Boohoo continue to struggle against value-focused competitors Shein and Primark.
Office for National Statistics data compounds these concerns, showing retail sales dropped 0.7% month-on-month in October. Even traditionally resilient food retailers experienced a 0.6% decline, despite the trend towards home cooking as a cost-saving measure.
The timing of Christmas Day on Wednesday could create a ‘super Saturday’ trading opportunity on 21 December, potentially driving last-minute sales. Industry analysts from PwC maintain cautious optimism, noting that the autumn budget’s immediate impact on consumer spending power remains limited.
Looking ahead to 2025, HMV chief Doug Putman expresses concerns about tougher trading conditions as budget measures take effect. The Canadian retail mogul emphasises the widespread nature of fragile consumer confidence across international markets, calling for measured political decision-making to support retail sector stability.
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