Bulgaria Poised to Adopt Euro Amid Political Turbulence and Disinformation Concerns

Bulgaria stands on the threshold of a significant monetary transition as it prepares to become the 21st member of the eurozone on 1 January 2026. The Balkan nation of 6.5 million people faces this historic shift against a backdrop of domestic political instability and mounting concerns over Russian-backed disinformation campaigns targeting public confidence in the currency transition.

Policymakers in Brussels and Sofia view the euro adoption as a critical mechanism to stimulate economic growth in the European Union’s poorest member state whilst cementing Bulgaria’s pro-Western orientation. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has emphasised that euro membership will deliver enhanced trade flows, increased investment activity, and improved employment quality alongside real income growth.

Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission’s economy commissioner, underscored the geopolitical significance of Bulgaria’s eurozone entry during a recent visit to Sofia. He noted that the move carries particular weight given Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and escalating global economic uncertainty, which collectively highlight the imperative for European unity. Dombrovskis argued that most European nations, including Bulgaria, lack sufficient individual influence to shape global affairs independently and must therefore pursue deeper integration within the EU’s political and economic frameworks.

Public sentiment remains sharply divided despite official endorsements. Ministry of finance polling indicates that 51 per cent of Bulgarian citizens support adopting the single currency, whilst 45 per cent oppose the transition. This narrow margin reflects broader societal fragmentation that has intensified during a four-year political crisis characterised by seven parliamentary elections and pervasive corruption scandals.

Parliamentary proceedings in June, when the European Commission approved Bulgaria’s euro entry, descended into physical confrontation as MPs from the far-right, pro-Russian Revival party obstructed legislative business. Earlier in December, Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov’s government collapsed after less than one year in office, succumbing to weeks of mass anti-corruption demonstrations across the country.

Petar Ganev, senior research fellow at the Institute of Market Economics in Sofia, characterised the division over euro adoption as symptomatic of comprehensive political tension. He observed that the prolonged political instability has fostered an acutely hostile political environment, with the country polarised on virtually every significant policy question.

Inflationary pressure during the transition period represents a primary concern for many Bulgarians, particularly given average monthly salaries of approximately £1,100. Rural communities and elderly citizens appear most vulnerable to potential price increases and exhibit the greatest apprehension about the currency changeover, notwithstanding Brussels’ assertions that evidence does not support expectations of rising inflation.

Nencho and Maya Neshev, 67-year-old pensioners from Vidin in northwestern Bulgaria, articulated widespread uncertainty regarding practical transition arrangements. Maya Neshev questioned whether households should accumulate savings in the existing lev currency during January or convert immediately to euros, highlighting the lack of clear guidance for retirees managing fixed incomes.

Beyond economic considerations, some Bulgarians express concern about cultural identity. Elena Vasileva, a 26-year-old engineer from Hisarya, lamented the loss of the lev, first introduced in 1881, noting that Bulgarian currency features prominent national historical figures. She described the transition as a diminution of national identity.

Victor Papazov, a macroeconomist and adviser to the Revival party, predicted Bulgaria faces a Greek-style economic crisis. Papazov, whose party maintains close ties with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia, claimed that euro adoption lacks any meaningful positive aspects and will accelerate economic deterioration. Revival leader Kostadin Kostadinov faced significant criticism earlier this year for making unsubstantiated claims that Bulgarians would lose savings following euro adoption due to unfavourable exchange rate adjustments.

Investigative reports have identified networks of Russian-linked social media operations conducting campaigns to undermine euro support through disinformation dissemination. When questioned about alleged Russian influence on public opinion, Dombrovskis acknowledged that Russia is prosecuting hybrid warfare against Europe through provocations, sabotage acts, airspace violations, political interference, and systematic disinformation campaigns.

Not all Bulgarians share pessimistic outlooks. Maria Valentinova, a 35-year-old Sofia pharmacist, expressed optimism that euro adoption will benefit Bulgaria’s long-term economic trajectory. She welcomed the prospect of her six-year-old son growing up in a eurozone member state, though she acknowledged the transitional period as somewhat stressful.

The transition mechanism allows Bulgarians to conduct payments in both lev and euro until 31 January, after which only euro payments will be accepted. Ganev anticipates a smooth transition, predicting that Bulgarians will adapt to the new currency within weeks. He emphasised that Bulgaria’s performance within the eurozone, whether positive or negative, will depend entirely on domestic policy choices and economic management.