Chocolate Prices Surge as Cocoa Costs and Inflation Bite into Christmas Budgets

Chocolate prices have soared by nearly 20 percent ahead of Christmas, as ongoing volatility in the cocoa market and rising production costs prevent any respite for consumers. Data from Worldpanel indicates an 18.4 percent year on year rise in supermarket chocolate prices, outpacing the increases seen in most other food categories, save for fresh meat and chicken.

This inflation has resulted in higher prices for well-known confectionery brands. For instance, KitKats now cost up to 70 percent more than they did last year, while a 310 gram pack of Maltesers is now £1.67 more expensive, according to supermarket tracking site Trolleycouk. Cadbury, Galaxy and Terry’s Chocolate Orange products have also seen substantial price hikes; the latter now costs 38 pence more than it did last Christmas.

Industry leaders point to a combination of supply chain challenges, surging cocoa prices and increased taxation as drivers of these relentless increases. William Whitaker, managing director of Yorkshire-based chocolatier Whitakers, cited escalating business costs including National Insurance contributions, higher minimum wages and business rates as reasons for average price increases of around 20 percent since the beginning of the year. Whitaker described the necessity of passing these costs to customers as a test of product relevance during difficult economic times.

Cocoa prices reached approximately 5930 US dollars per tonne, up from 2500 dollars per tonne prior to the pandemic. Output shortfalls in critical cocoa producing regions such as Ghana and Ivory Coast have been compounded by heightened global demand for chocolate since pandemic restrictions were lifted. Recent data from economists at ING suggests a modest supply surplus in the 202425 trading season, marking the first such occurrence since 202021. However, the forthcoming surplus is not expected to immediately translate into lower consumer prices, as manufacturers often purchase cocoa months in advance through contracted agreements.

To manage rising costs, some manufacturers have begun altering recipes. In October, reductions in cocoa content meant that McVities Penguin and Club bars no longer met the legal definition of chocolate. Other companies, including Mars Wrigley, have opted to decrease product size instead of raising shelf prices further, aiming to preserve value for customers without compromising on quality or taste.

Despite predictions of easing cocoa prices in the coming year, experts warn that meaningful price declines for British consumers are unlikely before Christmas 2026. For any reduction in shop prices to occur, manufacturers would need to conclude existing supply contracts and source cocoa at current, lower rates, which is unlikely to happen swiftly.