Commodity Markets Rally on Venezuela Political Upheaval

Global commodity markets surged on Monday following the weekend capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, as investors reassessed supply risks against potential medium-term production gains. The reaction across oil, precious metals and defence equities illustrated market expectations of significant geopolitical consequences emanating from South American developments.

Oil majors led equity gains, with Chevron closing 5.1 per cent higher in New York trading. The company operates the sole major US oil production presence in Venezuelan fields. Exxon Mobil reached a record high of $125.36 per share, gaining 2.2 per cent, whilst refiners Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 also posted substantial increases. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.6 per cent to $61.69 per barrel; US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 1.6 per cent to $57.96.

Venezuela controls approximately 17 per cent of the world’s proven crude reserves, yet produces less than 1 per cent of global output. Production capacity has deteriorated markedly from 1970s peaks owing to underinvestment, US sanctions and naval blockades. President Trump indicated that major US energy corporations seek immediate operational entry and pledged to rehabilitate infrastructure through private capital deployment.

JP Morgan analysts highlighted potential asset restitution claims. ConocoPhillips maintains outstanding claims approaching $10 billion relating to 2007 expropriations under Hugo Chávez’s administration, whilst Exxon’s damages appear valued near $2 billion against original claims exceeding $15 billion. Market participants assessed that global oversupply conditions would limit near-term price volatility despite supply disruptions.

Precious metals benefited from safe-haven demand. Gold surged 2.84 per cent to $4,393.97 per ounce, marking its strongest performance since 20 October 2025, whilst silver gained 3.6 per cent to $75.25. Copper prices crossed $13,000 per tonne, reaching record levels amid supply concerns following Chilean mining strikes.

The FTSE 100 closed above 10,000 for the first time in history, advancing 53.43 points to 10,004.57. Defence stocks dominated performance, with Babcock rising 5.8 per cent, BAE Systems gaining 5.5 per cent and Rolls-Royce advancing 2.9 per cent. Antofagasta, the Chilean copper miner, posted the largest single-day gain at 6.2 per cent. The FTSE 250 gained 184.72 points to 22,593.93, reaching its highest level in four years as investors positioned for extended geopolitical tension benefiting UK-listed corporations. Wall Street indices also reached fresh highs, with the Dow Jones breaking through 49,000 during intraday trading and closing at 48,977.18, up 1.2 per cent.