Consumer Confidence Plummets to 11 Month Low as Inflation Worries Mount

British consumer confidence has hit its lowest point in 11 months, plunging 40 points since the summer general election, according to the latest British Retail Consortium (BRC) survey. The monthly household sentiment measure, which polls 2,000 adults, registered a concerning three-point decline to -37 in February, marking the lowest level since the survey’s inception in March last year.

The downward trend represents the fifth consecutive month of deteriorating economic outlook amongst households. This decline coincides with consumer price inflation reaching an unexpected 3 per cent at the beginning of the year, primarily driven by escalating food and travel costs.

The most significant decline was observed in the BRC’s measure of household personal finances, which saw a sharp seven-point drop to -11 this month. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson highlighted that consumers are bracing themselves for increased prices, citing rising energy costs, impending employment tax increases from April, and potential inflation from international tariffs.

Food and drink inflation has reached a concerning ten-month peak of 3.3 per cent in January, up from 2 per cent in December, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. The month-on-month increase of 0.9 per cent exceeded the BRC’s shop price indicator, which had predicted a more modest 0.5 per cent rise.

The retail sector faces significant challenges, with two-thirds of retailers anticipating price increases due to £7 billion in additional costs, including higher employer national insurance contributions and a new packaging levy. Nearly half of retailers have warned of potential hiring freezes, with entry-level positions particularly vulnerable as businesses seek cost efficiencies to shield customers from rising expenses.

HSBC Senior Economist Chris Hare warns that accelerating food price growth poses a significant threat to living standards, suggesting that elevated ‘real feel’ inflation could continue to suppress consumer confidence and spending patterns in the coming months.