{"id":63251,"title":"Copper prices face further decline as US election results weigh on demand outlook","publisher":"Stockmark.IT","author":"Stockmark.IT Website","published":"2026-11-07T09:43:05+00:00","modified":"2026-11-07T09:43:05+00:00","canonical_url":"https://stockmark.it/copper-faces-further-slide-after-us-vote-td/","markdown_url":"https://stockmark.it/copper-faces-further-slide-after-us-vote-td.md","json_url":"https://stockmark.it/copper-faces-further-slide-after-us-vote-td.json","category":"Politics","categories":["Politics","US"],"featured_image":"https://i0.wp.com/stockmark.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/copper-prices-face-further-decline-as-us-election-results.png?fit=1536%2C1024&quality=80&ssl=1","format":"news","language":"en-GB","content":"Copper prices are poised for a further slide as recent gains by the Democratic Party in the United States midterm elections have weakened expectations for import tariffs and raised doubts about projected demand from data centres, according to TD Securities. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell to approximately $13,779 per tonne, equivalent to $6.25 per pound, by late afternoon on Friday in London. This represents the lowest level for the metal since July, marking a retreat from the intraday peak of almost $6.80 per pound recorded in September. Traders have been reassessing demand factors and the incentive to accumulate stockpiles in the United States, contributing to the recent downward pressure on prices.\n\nBart Melek, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, stated in a note published on Thursday that the red metal is expected to face further downside. The primary risk identified is that copper may lose some of the support previously provided by U.S. stockpiling before the expected growth in data-centre consumption materialises. Democratic gains in the elections could increase political resistance to power-hungry data centres, which are a significant source of anticipated copper demand growth. Additionally, affordability concerns ahead of the 2028 presidential vote may reduce the appetite for aggressive copper tariffs, further impacting market sentiment.\n\nMelek noted that many states slated for significant artificial intelligence data centre development have turned blue, with opposition to new construction potentially growing. Consequently, AI-driven copper demand could fall meaningfully short of current projections. At the same time, traders believe that aggressive copper tariffs are now less likely with the Democratic Party controlling the U.S. Congress. Affordability is described as a critical vulnerability for the governing party heading into 2028. TD Securities estimates that U.S. copper inventories total about 1.6 million tonnes. Reduced incentives for stockpiling and the disappearance of profitable price differences between American and overseas markets could halt additional inflows for a significant period, although slower imports would not necessarily mean an equivalent decline in industrial consumption.\n\nFitch Group’s BMI research and data unit also views tariff policy as the immediate catalyst for price movements, although it expects mine constraints and electrification demand to cushion any correction. BMI projects that copper will average $13,500 per tonne this year and $12,900 in 2027. The unit stated that U.S. tariff uncertainty remains the clearest near-term catalyst for copper. Washington’s July 2025 copper proclamation outlined possible refined copper duties of 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, subject to a subsequent presidential determination. While Democratic gains could increase political pressure over the decision, the proclamation leaves the final determination with the president, and the proposed levies remain unenacted. Separate 50% duties on certain semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products took effect in August 2025.\n\nAnticipation of these tariffs has redirected trade flows. Higher Comex prices relative to London encouraged shipments into American warehouses before potential tariffs, reducing metal available elsewhere. Comex inventories rose about 62% from January through Wednesday, with those warehouses holding about 70% of global exchange copper stocks on October 30, according to BMI. This dislocation overlays a concentrated supply chain, with Chile supplying 68% of U.S. refined copper imports during 2021–24, followed by Canada at 16%, according to U.S. Geological Survey data. China produced an estimated 14 million tonnes of refined copper in 2025, nearly half the global total.\n\nChinese buyers are paying more to secure immediately available metal, with the Yangshan import premium exceeding $200 a tonne on Wednesday, its highest since records began in 2017. However, Melek argues that even China’s scramble for supplies has proved insufficient to prevent prices slipping below $14,000. A tariff retreat would probably slow American imports before prompting substantial re-exports, as shipping metal back overseas requires prices to cover freight and handling. Supply remains a counterweight to price declines, with BMI cutting its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.1% from 2.4%, citing Chilean weakness and constraints at major operations in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo."}