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The world’s leading spirits manufacturer, Diageo, finds itself at a critical juncture as investors grow increasingly concerned about the company’s performance under new leadership. The £55bn British drinks giant, known for iconic brands such as Johnnie Walker, Guinness, and Smirnoff, has witnessed its share price plummet to £24, marking a stark 30% decline since Debra Crew took the helm in June 2023.
The transition of power occurred under tragic circumstances following the untimely death of former CEO Ivan Menezes, who had successfully steered the company through a decade of growth, including the challenging pandemic period. Despite Crew’s careful grooming for succession, her tenure has been marked by significant headwinds.
A particularly troubling development emerged in November 2023 when Diageo issued a rare profit warning, citing substantial sales deterioration in Latin America and the Caribbean. The company’s failure to anticipate regional market dynamics led to severe overstocking issues, raising questions about its market intelligence capabilities.
The challenges facing Diageo extend beyond operational mishaps. The rising popularity of weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic has shown potential to impact alcohol consumption patterns. This emerging threat, coupled with shifting consumer preferences towards non-alcoholic alternatives, presents a strategic challenge for a company heavily dependent on traditional spirits sales.
Notable investor Terry Smith’s Fundsmith has already voted with its feet, divesting its long-held position in Diageo after 13 years. The forthcoming half-year results presentation stands as a crucial moment for Crew and her newly appointed finance chief, Nik Jhangiani, to demonstrate their capability to navigate these challenges.
The company’s ambitious target of 5% to 7% medium-term sales growth, established under Menezes’s leadership, appears increasingly unattainable given last year’s modest 1.8% growth. With 25 years of consecutive dividend growth potentially at risk, the pressure mounts on management to articulate a convincing strategy for renewed growth and market confidence.
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