
HM Treasury’s ambitious projection of a £34 billion boost in tax revenue now faces fresh scrutiny, as latest analysis suggests a major exodus of high-net-worth individuals following the abolition of the non dom tax status in April. The new measures, overseen by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, sought to capture overseas income and wealth that previously remained outside the UK tax system for those classifying as non domiciled, or ‘non doms’.
According to data crunched by consultancy Chamberlain Walker, around 1,800 non doms have already departed Britain since the rule change—some 50 per cent above the forecast provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility. These departures have predominantly been among the wealthiest, with many seeking advice from financial professionals before deciding to relocate. As a result, anticipated fiscal gains from the abolition may not materialise as hoped.
Chris Walker, the consultancy’s founding partner and an ex-government economist, argues that HMRC’s datasets underestimate the scale of the migration. Many of the richest opting to leave are investors rather than those showing up as employees or regular income earners, allowing their movements to evade official statistics. Walker warns that policymaking is hindered by a lack of insight into the behaviour of those most sensitive to changes—those most likely to relocate in response to tax reform.
HM Treasury has pushed back against these claims, characterising the data as anecdotal. A spokesperson reiterated the government’s position that individuals living in Britain must contribute their fair share to public services, including the NHS, reinforcing the rationale behind the abolition of the non dom status.
The exodus is already leaving marks beyond public accounts. Ferrari, the luxury Italian carmaker, recently confirmed it limited deliveries to the UK following signs that clients were leaving the market due to tax concerns. Business leaders across luxury and financial sectors are taking note, with some warning of a trickle turning into a tide as ultra-wealthy individuals decamp to jurisdictions like Milan and Dubai.
Rachel Reeves remains steadfast, expressing confidence that Britain maintains its appeal as a destination for the world’s wealthiest, citing the country’s unique culture, opportunities, and quality of life. Only time and evolving revenue figures will reveal whether the policy achieves its intended financial benefit or whether the anticipated windfall is overshadowed by capital flight.
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