Greggs Shares Plummet as Heatwave Melts Profits and Sausage Roll Sales

The beloved British bakery chain Greggs has issued a stark profit warning as scorching summer temperatures dampened consumer appetite for its signature hot pastries, triggering a sharp decline in its share price.

The FTSE 250 stalwart witnessed its shares tumble by 289p, representing a substantial 14.6 per cent drop to £16.86, marking a three-month low. The company now projects its annual operating profit to fall “modestly” below the £195.3 million achieved in 2024, citing reduced footfall during June’s extreme temperatures.

Despite the challenging climate, Greggs managed to deliver a 2.6 per cent growth in like-for-like sales at company-managed shops during the first half of 2025, pushing revenues to £1.03 billion. The surge in cold beverage sales failed to offset the decline in hot food purchases, highlighting the weather’s significant impact on consumer behaviour.

The high street favourite maintains its ambitious expansion plans, targeting between 140 and 150 new store openings over the next year, having already launched 87 new outlets in the first half while closing 56 underperforming locations. The company remains optimistic about exceeding 3,000 stores in the long term.

City analysts have expressed mixed views on the profit warning, with Jefferies describing it as “largely one-off in nature,” while Panmure Liberum raised concerns about declining volumes and market share momentum. Barclays highlighted intensifying competition from supermarkets as a “major risk,” particularly in high street locations where consumer confidence continues to waver.

The iconic British brand, which celebrated its first £2 billion sales milestone last year, faces mounting pressure to maintain its growth trajectory amidst challenging market conditions and changing consumer preferences. The stock has experienced a notable decline of almost two-fifths over the past 12 months, reflecting investor concerns about the company’s ability to sustain its historical growth rates.