Heat Pump Sales Plummet Across Europe as Market Returns to Pre Ukraine War Levels

European heat pump sales experienced a dramatic 23% decline in 2024, returning to pre-Ukraine conflict levels in a significant setback for the continent’s green heating transition. Industry data reveals particularly steep drops in Belgium and Germany, where demand halved, whilst France witnessed a 39% reduction. The United Kingdom emerged as the sole bright spot, achieving a remarkable 63% sales increase.

The market correction has sent shockwaves through the manufacturing sector, with the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) reporting billions in stranded investment capacity. The industry has already shed 4,000 jobs, with an additional 6,000 workers facing reduced hours or similar impacts.

The sales decline arrives despite persistently high gas prices and ongoing energy security concerns across Europe. Market analysts attribute the downturn to political uncertainty, modifications to support schemes in key markets, and broader economic sluggishness affecting heating installations overall.

The slump represents a marked departure from the International Energy Agency’s ambitious roadmap, which envisions heat pump sales growing from 10% of global heating equipment in 2022 to 50% by 2026. The devices, whilst costlier upfront than traditional gas boilers, typically offer lower running costs and reduced environmental impact.

EHPA Director General Paul Kenny characterised the sales decline as a “lost opportunity” for Europe, emphasising the critical role of heat pumps in achieving energy independence. The organisation is now calling on the European Commission to prioritise heat pump technology in its forthcoming clean industrial deal, viewing it as essential for aligning climate objectives with competitive and geopolitical interests.

The market regression to 2021 levels, with two million units sold, raises serious questions about Europe’s commitment to sustainable heating solutions and its ability to meet climate targets whilst reducing dependence on foreign gas supplies.