Heathrow third runway project under scrutiny

The proposed £49 billion third runway scheme at Heathrow Airport faces increasing criticism as experts describe it as potentially unaffordable. Research from the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport highlights concerns regarding outdated assumptions about passenger behaviour and airline economics, suggesting that the project’s viability is questionable.

According to Chris Tarry, chairman of the institute’s aviation policy group, the development relies on projections from over a decade ago, which assumed that a new northwest runway would be operational by 2026. Passenger growth estimates for the London area were based on forecasts that have proven overly optimistic.

The Airports Commission predicted that the number of passengers would rise from 135 million in 2011 to 241 million by 2050. The plan included accommodating an additional 68 million travellers at Heathrow through the new runway; however, planned increases in capacity at Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, and London City airports are anticipated to absorb this growth, eliminating the need for expansion at Heathrow.

Concerns have been raised about changing travel patterns, with fewer passengers transferring at Heathrow compared to previous years. Airlines are increasingly favouring point-to-point services rather than traditional models that rely on transfer passengers. This trend undermines the justification for expanding Heathrow into a larger hub airport.

The financial implications of the new runway are also significant, with Tarry suggesting that passenger charges could approach the average fare of low-cost carriers, rendering operations economically unviable for some airlines. The current leadership at Heathrow aims to keep these charges below £50; however, they have not clarified how this will be achieved.

Calls for a more balanced approach to capacity expansion reflect a need for planning that prioritises consumer interests. An immediate focus on improving existing terminal facilities could better address overcrowding without the enormous financial burden of a new runway.

Heathrow’s leadership refutes claims of outdated assumptions in their expansion case, asserting that ongoing governmental reviews will assess the economic justifications while considering environmental impacts. They maintain that only a new runway can facilitate the scale of growth required for the UK economy.