Britain’s flagship high-speed rail project, HS2, is facing fresh scrutiny as internal management estimates suggest costs could reach £66 billion, marking a substantial £9 billion increase from previous projections.
The concerning figures emerged from an HS2 board paper drafted in June, which will be referenced in an upcoming Department for Transport report. The latest cost range, spanning between £54 billion and £66 billion in 2019 prices, represents a significant escalation from the November estimates of £49 billion to £57 billion.
When adjusted for current inflation rates, the maximum projected cost could approach £80 billion, despite the Conservative government’s earlier decision to cancel the northern leg connecting Birmingham to Manchester in a bid to reduce expenditure.
Whilst government officials dispute these figures, claiming they lack formal departmental endorsement, the estimates underscore the project’s persistent financial challenges. The newly appointed HS2 chief executive, Mark Wild, has commenced a comprehensive review of the scheme’s costs, expected to span four to five months.
Industry insiders suggest Wild’s final assessment could exceed £80 billion once inflation and rising costs are fully factored in. The review aims to deliver an action plan for completing the remaining work cost-effectively, including establishing realistic budgets and schedules.
The project’s financial trajectory has raised serious concerns, considering its initial 2012 approval came with a £33 billion price tag. Management attributes the escalating costs to various factors, including cost-plus contracts, increased tunnelling requirements, and complex ground conditions. The Treasury’s upcoming three-year spending review in June is expected to provide updated costings accounting for inflation.
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