Immigration Figures Reveal Emerging Trends in UK Economy

Recent months have witnessed immigration once again dominating UK political and economic discourse. In August, polling indicated that 48 per cent of Britons viewed immigration as among the foremost challenges facing the country. This level of concern rivals those seen during the 2015 migrant crisis, according to long-running data from Ipsos dating back to 1974.

Despite intensifying attention, official Office for National Statistics data reveals a different narrative. Net migration, after peaking to record highs in the aftermath of the post-Brexit shift—labelled the Boriswave—has started to subside. By 2024, net migration had fallen by half, with expectations of a further decline prompted by rule changes affecting health and care visas and reductions in arrivals from the Ukraine and Afghanistan.

Examining the composition of arrivals provides further insight. The largest share—approximately 47 per cent—comprises students and their dependents. These individuals, who significantly contribute through tuition fees rather than drawing on public services, are not typically eligible for indefinite leave to remain unless progressing into the workforce. The next largest cohorts are those on work visas, making up 20 per cent, followed by their dependents at 11 per cent.

Political narratives often contrast sharply with the data, particularly concerning economic participation. While only a minor fraction of arrivals—less than 5 per cent in 2025—are asylum seekers or small boat arrivals, claims persist that new arrivals contribute little to the economy. The available evidence disputes this. The vast majority of those with work-linked visas record taxable earnings, and half of family visa entrants have PAYE earnings, not accounting for self-employment or those who have subsequently left the country.

Dependents form a notable component of workforce participation. The latest statistics show 81 per cent of health and care worker dependents and 45 per cent of skilled worker dependents have recorded earnings. Even senior or specialist visa dependents report a 25 per cent participation rate.

Earnings analysis from the University of Oxford Migration Observatory shows non-EU immigrant workers’ median pay is on par with, or above, that of UK-born counterparts by 2024. Migrants also face NHS surcharges and are less likely to access schooling and social care, challenging the assertion that migration is a long-term fiscal burden. The evolving composition and economic participation of migrants raise questions for future policy direction and labour force planning as the UK navigates shifting demographic and economic demands.