---
title: "Research group identifies potential military insider trading on Polymarket"
publisher: "Stockmark.IT"
author: "Stockmark.IT Website"
published: "2026-08-24T07:02:44+00:00"
modified: "2026-08-24T07:02:44+00:00"
date: 2026-08-24
canonical: "https://stockmark.it/insider-trading-on-polymarket-is-revealing-military-secrets/"
category: "Markets"
categories: ["Markets", "Military"]
image: "https://i0.wp.com/stockmark.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/research-group-identifies-potential-military-insider-trading.png?fit=1536%2C1024&quality=80&ssl=1"
format: "news"
language: "en-GB"
---

# Research group identifies potential military insider trading on Polymarket

**Published:** August 24, 2026
**Author:** Stockmark.IT Website
**Categories:** Markets, Military
**Featured image:** ![Research group identifies potential military insider trading on Polymarket](https://i0.wp.com/stockmark.it/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/research-group-identifies-potential-military-insider-trading.png?fit=1536%2C1024&quality=80&ssl=1)

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A new investigation by the nonprofit research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective suggests that insider trading involving US military information on the prediction market platform Polymarket may be more widespread than previously reported. The analysis, reported by Reuters, indicates that more than 150 digital wallets on the platform may have traded on non-public military intelligence. Experts warn that such practices could compromise sensitive national security information and expose operational details to foreign intelligence agencies.

The research focused on what the group defines as long-shot bets, specifically wagers of at least $2,500 placed at odds of 35 percent or less. These types of bets guarantee a significant payout if successful. By analysing all settled markets through 5 May, the researchers identified 566 wallets they have dubbed orcas, a reference to the selective hunting techniques of killer whales. These accounts typically placed a lucrative long-shot bet on a newly created account before cashing out and disappearing. The group noted that many of these wallets had not been flagged by other researchers or media outlets.

Among the identified orca accounts, 152 placed bets on military markets with an average win rate of 97.2 percent, generating a total of $8 million. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective stated that while other accounts may be profiting from inside information through smaller bets over longer periods, these orca accounts represent the most flagrant examples. The group warned that the visibility of such unusual betting activity could inadvertently reveal military secrets. Market watchers and copycat bettors often notice these suspicious wagers, leading to a surge in similar bets that draws attention to the predicted outcomes. In one instance, an orca account bet on US military action in Iran hours before bombing began, prompting two other bettors to place wagers of $200,000 and $100,000 respectively.

David Szakonyi, co-founder of the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, told Reuters that most people underestimate how observable unusual betting activity is on the platform. He noted that clear signs indicate large traders and bots are copying potential insider trades, and that it would be naive to assume foreign intelligence agencies are not monitoring these markets. The platform has a history of defying statistical odds, with the group previously finding that 52 percent of long-shot bets on military action are successful, compared to a 14 percent win rate across all markets.

The situation has increased pressure on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has historically regulated other markets such as oil and agriculture. The agency banned Polymarket from operating in the US in 2022 and attempted to block its rival Kalshi from offering bets on congressional elections. However, the current administration has made overtures to these platforms, dropping Biden-era investigations into Polymarket and allowing it to form a US entity. Donald Trump Jr serves on Polymarket’s advisory board and joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor in 2025, reportedly receiving a $300,000 stake in the company. In May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig vowed to crack down on insider trading, stating the agency is surveilling markets globally. To date, only two Americans have been charged with insider trading on these platforms, including a US army soldier arrested in April for betting on the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.

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