Jet2 profit warning as late bookings rise and shares slide

Jet2, the UK’s largest package holiday operator and third biggest airline by passenger numbers, has announced anticipated profits will be at the lower end of analysts’ forecasts, as the trend of holidaymakers waiting until the last moment to book intensifies. The company reported that while package holiday customers rose only 2 per cent by August’s end, flight-only bookings rose a notable 17 per cent, indicating a shift in consumer behaviour towards flexibility and last-minute deals.

This change has made it more challenging for Jet2 to provide definitive guidance and has resulted in the Aim-listed firm’s shares tumbling by over 20 per cent in early London trading, before settling at a decline of approximately 12 per cent to £14.21. Despite this, Jet2 shares remain double their value from five years ago.

Jet2 has expanded its summer 2025 seat offering by 8 per cent to 18.5 million, while exercising “capacity discipline” for the winter schedule with a slight reduction in seats – from 5.8 million to 5.6 million – still marking a 9 per cent increase on last year. Market analysts at Peel Hunt predict flat profit growth, with consensus forecasts potentially dropping by up to 10 per cent compared to last year’s £446.5 million.

Company chief executive Steve Heapy stated the business continues to operate in a challenging environment yet remains underpinned by a proven business model, a loyal customer base, flexibility in capacity management and award-winning customer service. He emphasised these strengths would anchor Jet2’s financial results and support future profitable growth.

The shift in demand has been attributed partly to exceptional summer weather in the UK, which boosted domestic holidays, and stiffer competition from rivals like Ryanair, which has reclaimed market share through partnerships with online travel agents. Jet2, founded in 1983 by Philip Meeson, has grown significantly, outlasting major names such as Thomas Cook, and now boasts a market value of around £3.3 billion.

Technology has played a significant role in this shift as consumers, aided by mobile apps and comparison websites, now find it ever easier to secure late deals. While financial protection and flexibility are valued in package holidays, operators must adjust to thrive amid reduced visibility and evolving consumer habits.