Labour welfare reforms could increase long term benefit claims by 400,000

Labour’s recent welfare reforms are anticipated to result in an increase of 400000 individuals who will be classified as unfit for work by the end of the decade. Government figures suggest that the changes, aimed at enabling long term sick individuals to return to employment, will instead bolster the number of claimants on the highest tier of incapacity benefit.

The reforms have raised concerns amid claims from the opposition that the current policies are pushing more people into welfare dependency. Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, has faced criticism for her approach towards disability benefits as well as the employment support structure that has been put in place.

Initially, it was estimated that about 16,000 fewer people would be in work as a consequence of the reforms. The Office for Budget Responsibility has indicated that the figures could rise substantially, especially with the changes proposed to the work capability assessment which determines eligibility for incapacity benefits.

Under these reforms, those who are on the “limited capability for work or work-related activity” element of universal credit are expected to see their numbers swell worryingly from 1.8 million to around 3 million by 2030. This surge is attributed to a reversal of Conservative plans which aimed to encourage more individuals with mobility and mental health issues to seek employment.

Kendall has justified the reforms as necessary to eliminate what she describes as “perverse financial incentives” that previously contributed to welfare dependency. The government is keen to introduce a £1 billion employment support initiative aimed at pushing more individuals into the job market.

However, critics argue that the effect of these changes is likely to exacerbate the existing issues within the welfare system rather than alleviate them. The complexities of the welfare structure mean that modifications in one area can lead to unintended consequences in another, a point highlighted by various analysts and stakeholders.

With local organisations pushing for a more tailored approach to back-to-work programmes, there is an ongoing dialogue among policymakers regarding the best methods to support those ready to enter the workforce. The situation remains fluid as further assessments and discussions are expected to continue.