Londons black cabs face extinction within 20 years warns TfL thinktank

The iconic black cabs of London, a hallmark of the capital’s transport system since the 17th century, could vanish from the streets by 2045 if current trends continue. This stark warning comes from Centre for London, a prominent thinktank, calling for urgent action to halt the decline and preserve the trade.

Current figures paint a worrying picture. Licensed black cabs have declined from 22,810 in 2013-14 to just 14,470 in 2023-24, a significant drop in a decade. Disturbingly, new driver licences issued have also sharply decreased, with just 104 licences granted in 2024 compared to over 1,000 in 2016. These troubling trends, experts say, threaten to erase a centuries-old cultural symbol.

A key barrier to new entrants in the trade is the dual challenge of costly electric taxis and the daunting Knowledge test. As of now, only zero-emission or electric black cabs can be licensed, a move aimed at aligning with environmental goals. However, the cost of these vehicles has risen by 40 per cent since 2017. Compounding the problem, the previous government scrappage scheme has ended, while grants for plug-in taxis stand at only £4,000 and are set to disappear entirely by 2026.

The Knowledge test, a rigorous exam requiring mastery of London’s streets and landmarks, also discourages newcomers. A survey conducted by Freenow revealed that more than 50 per cent of private hire drivers avoided transitioning to black cabs due to the lengthy and demanding process, which typically takes over three years. Approximately one-third noted that the test was simply too challenging.

Centre for London has proposed several measures to arrest the decline. These include reforming test requirements, providing better financial support through interest-free loans for newly qualified drivers purchasing electric cabs, and urging the London mayor to lobby the government for industry assistance. Antonia Jennings, the thinktank’s chief executive, emphasised the importance of black cabs, calling them a cornerstone of accessible, safe, and convenient transportation in the city.

Transport unions and experts in the field maintain hope for the future. Steve McNamara, general secretary of the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association, highlighted the need for decisive government and mayoral intervention to ensure black cabs remain a vital part of London’s transportation mix. McNamara noted that, while the trade faces existential threats, it has weathered challenges in the past and can adapt to survive if key policies are implemented.

Despite the rise of ride-hailing apps like Uber and persistent competition, observers suggest that black cabs retain cultural and symbolic significance. Tony Travers, a professor and local government authority at LSE, remarked that even in a worst-case scenario, these vehicles would likely endure as heritage artefacts, reinforcing their unique role in London’s transport identity.

As Transport for London prepares to publish a new taxi and private hire action plan, the future of London’s black cabs hangs in the balance. With the right strategies and support, this trade can evolve to meet modern demands without losing its cherished legacy.