Nordic Euroscepticism Wanes as Geopolitical Tensions Rise in Europe

Norway has long stood as a poster child for Eurosceptics who argue that life outside the European Union is preferable to being within the bloc. However, as both Vladimir Putin’s renewed aggression and Donald Trump’s unpredictable stance on transatlantic security put the region on edge, Nordic nations traditionally wary of Brussels are reconsidering their position on European integration.

Iceland has already set in motion plans for a 2027 referendum on EU membership. Meanwhile, Denmark’s central bank governor has questioned the country’s longstanding euro opt out, urging Copenhagen to contemplate euro adoption for greater influence in European policy decisions. Recent Norwegian elections also signalled a subtle shift in the country’s relationship with the EU, rekindling debate that had lain largely dormant for years.

Public attitudes across the Nordic region are shifting. In Norway, where voters twice rejected EU membership, polling data indicates that the majority opposing entry has shrunk from over 60 percent in the late 2010s to below 50 percent today. A recent survey showed 48 percent against and 41 percent in favour of joining, the narrowest margin recorded. A substantial 63 percent of Norwegians believe the question merits a new referendum.

The changing security landscape in Europe is a key factor behind these trends. The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine served as a regional wake-up call, breaking longstanding taboos around military alignment. In both countries, once widespread opposition to giving up neutrality gave way to rapid policy change, indicating how quickly public sentiment can pivot during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

While Norway is economically entwined with the EU through its European Economic Area arrangement, it remains outside formal decision-making. Many now see this as an increasingly untenable position, with pro-EU voices arguing that Oslo could secure a better deal from a seat at the table, and critics convinced too much sovereignty has already been outsourced to Brussels.

Despite a modest increase in support for deeper integration, Norwegian politics remain riven by division on the issue. The Labour Party, which increased its vote share in the latest election, is led by a pro-EU Prime Minister whose ambitions are checked by coalition arithmetic and resistance from leftwing partners. The surging populist Progress Party prioritises restricting immigration and has even mooted withdrawal from the Schengen agreement.

Momentum towards closer Nordic cooperation with the EU is now shaped as much by security concerns as by economics. If either Iceland or Norway moves decisively towards EU membership, leaving the other as the last major non-member in the region, the pressure to act may prove irresistible. Public opinion, as recent years have demonstrated, is liable to change suddenly, and the persistent debate over EU accession in Norway shows no sign of fading away.