North Sea oil and gas reserves could be three times higher than forecast

Analysts at Wood Mackenzie, a world leader in energy data, have revealed that Britain’s North Sea could hold up to three times more recoverable oil and gas than currently estimated by the government. Their report suggests as much as 14 billion barrels remain extractable from existing fields, compared with the 4 billion barrels outlined by the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA).

These findings indicate that the UK’s reserves could satisfy domestic fossil fuel needs throughout the transition to net zero by 2050. Wood Mackenzie’s AI-powered analysis assessed “recovery rates” and benchmarked North Sea fields against 35,000 global counterparts. The firm stated that if UK recovery factors matched those in similar fields worldwide, an additional 9 per cent of resources could be recovered. Using best-in-class factors, that figure could rise to 18 per cent, yielding up to 14 billion additional barrels from the hundred largest fields.

The NSTA itself estimates a further 15 billion barrels may lie in unexplored areas. Over the past half century, UK offshore operators have extracted around 47 billion barrels from the North Sea, Irish Sea, and Atlantic waters. Production peaked in 1999 but declined to just 60 million tonnes last year, and projections indicate annual output could fall to 21 million tonnes by 2035.

Industry leaders argue political intervention, not resource scarcity, now presents the main threat. Existing policy includes a 78 per cent tax rate on offshore profits and significant drilling restrictions. Greg Newman, of Onyx Capital, asserts that punitive taxation discourages new development, undermining the sector’s role as a source of both employment and tax revenue.

There are calls for the government to roll back the windfall tax, repeal restrictions on new licences and allow Britain to make better use of its remaining resources. Conversely, official statements highlight a commitment to a “fair and orderly” energy transition, significant investments in offshore wind, and new carbon capture projects to safeguard skilled jobs.

These contrasting perspectives reflect broader debates around energy policy and the future of the UK’s hydrocarbon sector amid the drive towards net zero.