Norway Faces Energy Turmoil as Interconnector Debate Sparks Political Upheaval

Jonas Gahr Støre, Norway’s prime minister, has emerged from a turbulent election with his Labour Party clinging to government thanks to just 28 percent of the vote. His continued grip on power depends entirely on unpredictable deals with the Red Party, the Greens, and the Centre Party as no stable coalitions are forthcoming. Yet it was the meteoric rise of the Right-wing Progress Party, now second with 24 percent, that stunned the nation. The Progress Party is vocal in its hostility towards interconnector cables, promising to renegotiate trading deals with Britain and Germany. Strikingly, even the Conservatives, long-time champions of international energy integration, suffered their worst result since 2005 and are no longer supporting new cable projects. They are now ambivalent on whether to renew the ageing Skagerrak 1 and 2 cables to Denmark, marking an almost complete reversal in energy policy.

The future of Norway’s power strategy now lies precariously with the Centre Party, which holds strict views on sovereign control. Calls for the non-renewal of Skagerrak and the reopening of interconnection agreements with neighbouring countries are growing louder. The Centre Party insists exports should halt when domestic electricity prices rise above certain levels, seeing foreign cables as both an economic drain and a risk to Norway’s independence. In stark contrast, the Greens push for more cables, more renewable generation, and rapid wind power expansion. Their belief is that higher prices should be permitted to encourage investment in energy efficiency, a standpoint that keeps them at odds with the rest of parliament during this period of soaring consumer costs.

Energy policy has grown fiercely divisive due to a sharp hike in electricity prices following the launch of new links to Britain and Germany in 2021. While prices across Norway’s north and south regions used to be similar, southern Norway is now closely matching the higher Continental European rates, igniting public resentment. Statnett, the state system operator, governs power flows between zones and has faced harsh criticism for underestimating the cables’ price impact. Instead of the predicted marginal rise, the increase in Norwegian energy costs has been far greater, leaving many households and businesses feeling exposed.

As public anger swells, a growing number of Norwegians argue that exports should only proceed when reservoirs are brimming. The current regime, where low water levels prompt electricity cutbacks that push up domestic prices until European parity is met and exports stop, is widely viewed as deeply unjust. Distrust in energy management has consequently ballooned, fuelled by conspiracy theories that suggest cables were built to inflate prices to favour wind power developers. The EU’s energy agency Acer is the target of much of this scepticism, accused of overreach despite its limited authority in setting market prices or mandating new infrastructure.

Supporters of European energy integration stress that the price rises cannot be pinned solely on interconnector projects. The timeline coincides with global gas price shocks prompted by the Ukraine war, drier weather hitting hydro reservoirs, and increased electricity consumption from new sectors. Nevertheless, political gridlock persists. No one party supports constructing additional cables, yet there is also no clear mandate for pulling out of existing arrangements. Labour cautiously suggests Statnett could apply to renew Skagerrak but signals little enthusiasm, the Conservatives maintain a studied neutrality, the Centre Party stands firm against, and the Progress Party eyes outright renegotiation.

Within this impasse, the fate of Norwegian and even British energy security hangs on weather patterns and water reservoirs. With reservoir stocks at two-decade lows, any deficit in rainfall could leave Norway forced into power rationing. British customers, who once saw interconnectors as a buffer against domestic supply shocks, may ultimately find their lights governed by rainfall in southern Norway—a complex and uneasy scenario for European energy stability.