Norway Oil and Gas Investment Projected to Decline from 2025 Peak Levels

Energy companies operating in Norwegian offshore waters anticipate a reduction in oil and gas investment during 2026 compared with the previous year, as major field development projects approach completion. The latest quarterly survey from Statistics Norway confirmed this outlook on Thursday.

Investment in oil and gas activities, including pipeline infrastructure, reached 273 billion Norwegian crowns in 2025, equivalent to approximately $28.8 billion. This represented a record high and an increase of 8.7% compared with 2024 levels.

Operators on the Norwegian continental shelf currently estimate investment for 2026 at around 255 billion crowns, or $26.9 billion. Whilst this figure exceeds the projection provided in the previous quarterly survey, it remains below the actual investment recorded in 2025.

Preliminary estimates for 2027 indicate investment in oil and gas activities offshore Western Europe’s largest hydrocarbon producer will decline further to 201 billion crowns, approximately $21.2 billion.

The anticipated reduction over the next two years stems primarily from the completion and commencement of production at several fields, which diminishes the requirement for development expenditure on new resources. Norway’s tax incentive package introduced in 2020 encouraged investment in fields approved by the end of 2022, driving record capital deployment in the sector over the past three years.

Statistics Norway noted that the smallest of these incentivised projects have either commenced production or will begin operations during 2026. However, several additional projects are expected to submit development plans this year, which will increase the field development estimate for 2026 beyond current survey figures.

Despite achieving the strongest exploration results in four years during 2025, Norway requires sustained exploration activity and new discoveries, alongside continued investment in fresh oil and gas projects, to counteract an expected decline in output from the late 2020s. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate issued this assessment last month.

The offshore energy regulator’s annual report on Norwegian Shelf activity indicated that investment levels are expected to decline gradually towards 2030 as development projects reach completion without equivalent new projects to replace them.