The global oil price has fallen by nearly $3.50 per barrel as concerns over a slowdown of China continue and fears about an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel have eased. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, has assured the White House, according to reports, that the retaliation Israel will take against Iran in response to its missile attack launched at the beginning ofOctober, won’t target oil export facilities or nuclear installations, which would send the market prices soaring.
The Washington Post published the reports first. They helped calm the market, and the oil price dropped from nearly $78 per barrel at the beginning of the week, to less than $74 on February 2.
The oil prices have been erratic in response to the escalating tensions across the Middle East. They reached a high of over $80 per barrel in early this month but remain far below their average price last year, which was around $82.50.
The decline in global oil demand has been attributed to a slower than expected economy of China. It worsened over the past few weeks amid fears that Beijing’s fiscal measures may not be sufficient to boost economic growth.
The oil prices fell further this week following a report by the Opec oil cartel, and its allies known collectively under the name Opec+. In the report, the Opec and Opec+ cut their forecasts of the growth in world oil demand for 2024-2025 for the third month running. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly oil report was published on Tuesday. In it, the IEA warned that a slowdown in demand for oil and an abundance of crude oil could lead to a market surplus.
The Paris-based company also assured the market any interruption in Iran’s oil sales could be absorbed, as the levels of oil stored had risen to more than 1,2bn barrels. It added that spare production capacity between Opec+ member countries was at historical highs.
The energy agency stated that “as supply developments unfold, IEA stands prepared to act if needed.” The energy agency said that “for now, the supply continues to flow and, in the absence a major disruption, there will be a significant surplus on the market in the coming year.” The IEA has lowered its forecast of world oil demand this year, to 860,000 barrels a daily. This is 40,000 bpd less than the previous estimate. The IEA expects world oil demand to grow by 1m barrels per day next year. This is about 50,000 more than last month’s forecast.
The IEA warned repeatedly that a slower Chinese economy and a move towards electric vehicles could lead to weakened oil demand in the world’s largest economy.
The Chinese demand is expected to increase by only 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024. In August, consumption fell by 500,000 barrels per day compared to the same month in 2017. This was the fourth consecutive month that consumption declined.
The IEA stated that “Chinese oil consumption continues to fall short of expectations and is a major drag on growth.”
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