ONS Delays Retail Sales Figures Amid UK Economic Data Concerns

The UK Office for National Statistics has postponed the publication of its monthly retail sales figures, intensifying existing doubts over the reliability of official economic data. On Tuesday, the ONS announced that it would delay its consumer spending numbers, originally scheduled for Friday, to 5 September. The agency cited the need to conduct further quality assurance checks as the rationale for this move.

This latest delay is far from an isolated incident. Over recent months, the ONS has postponed several key data releases indispensable to both government policy and the Bank of England’s monetary decisions. In March, UK trade figures were held back following issues detected in data from 2023, coinciding with US trade policy developments. Likewise, the publication of the producer price index was suspended after errors were uncovered reaching as far back as the global financial crisis of 2008.

Market commentators have voiced concerns about the implications of these repeated delays. Jamie Constable, partner at Singer Capital Markets, described the timing and length of the retail sales delay as poor, indicating significant worries over the underlying data’s integrity. The particulars of the ONS’s concerns are set to be communicated once the postponed figures are released.

Latest available figures from June suggested a 0.9 per cent rise in retail sales, rebounding from a sharp 2.8 per cent fall in May. However, the ONS estimates that consumer spending remains 1.6 per cent below the pre-pandemic trend. Economists partly attribute the UK’s sluggish growth to this shortfall in consumption. Meanwhile, household savings rates have exceeded 10 per cent of monthly income since the onset of the Covid 19 pandemic, though these numbers often face subsequent revision.

The credibility of official statistics has come under increasing scrutiny. Recent revisions revealed the UK economy grew 0.3 percentage points faster than previously thought, owing to improved data on research and pharmaceuticals. Nevertheless, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, recently described the quality of economic data as a substantial problem for policymakers. A government review published in June highlighted deep seated issues within the ONS, compounded by the sudden departure of chief statistician Sir Ian Diamond in May due to health concerns.

The challenge is not limited to the ONS. The Department for Work and Pensions’ family resources survey now receives just a 25 per cent response rate, down from 60 per cent fifteen years ago. The living costs and food survey, vital for GDP estimation, has seen its participation rate plunge to a record low of 22 per cent. These developments cast a shadow over the reliability of statistics underpinning critical judgements about living standards, inflation and unemployment in Britain.

Philip Shaw, chief UK economist at Investec, lamented the rising number of problematic official data sets, though he noted the availability of alternative sources to guide economic analysis. As caution grows among policymakers and market participants, the call for a restoration in statisticians’ standards is becoming more urgent than ever.