Primary Schools Face Steep Decline In Pupil Numbers As London Bears The Brunt Of Birthrate Falloff

Primary schools across England are facing an uncertain future as new analysis reveals that declining birthrates could lead to the closure of as many as 800 schools by the end of the decade. London is expected to experience the sharpest drop, with boroughs such as Islington, Lambeth and Southwark forecasted to see the most pronounced reductions in pupil numbers over the next five years.

According to the Education Policy Institute, national primary pupil numbers reached their peak in 2018-19 at approximately 4.5 million. Since then, this figure has already dropped by nearly 2 per cent and predictions suggest an additional 4 per cent fall by 2029. This anticipated decrease, amounting to about 162,000 fewer pupils, represents the equivalent of 800 single-form primary schools sitting empty or facing closure within just a few years.

The situation in London is exacerbated by factors beyond just the falling birthrate. Data points to increased migration out of the city, with many families relocating to other parts of the country or moving abroad. The lure of private education or independent schools, a more prevalent option in the capital compared to the rest of England, is also contributing to the pressures facing state schools.

This trend has a direct impact on school finances, as funding is closely linked to pupil numbers. Jon Andrews, head of analysis at the institute, notes that declining enrolment puts significant financial pressure on schools, threatening their long-term sustainability. Several local councils now find themselves grappling with tough decisions over mergers and potential closures, as existing resources become increasingly stretched.

Analysis also indicates that demographic shifts cannot be entirely attributed to declining birthrates. Factors such as the cost of living, intense housing pressures and disparities in school quality across regions play a substantial role in shaping where families choose to settle and educate their children. Research into recent cohorts revealed that one in five pupils who started reception in London state schools in 2017-18 had left the sector by the time they reached their final year of primary education. A significant share were no longer recorded in the system, potentially reflecting migration trends following Brexit and the pandemic.

Despite these challenges, education leaders are calling on government to step in and help councils maintain capacity in primary education. Such efforts, they suggest, could create opportunities for smaller class sizes and allow for a more focused approach to supporting pupils, even as overall numbers contract.