Robert Fico, the anti-Ukraine ex-prime minister of Slovakia, won the highest share of votes at elections in Slovakia. This puts him on course to try and form a government coalition that could undermine Western unity in aiding Kyiv’s war against Russia.
According to Sunday’s preliminary results, Michal Simecka, the leader of the liberal Progressive Slovakia Party, and Fico, his Smer, were tied at almost 23 percent, while Michal Fico was on 18 percent. Simecka’s party was the top exit poll on Saturday night.
Fico announced on Sunday that he will begin talks with other parties about forming a new coalition. He said: “We are here, ready, have learned something and we’re more experience.”
He added, “People in Slovakia face more problems than Ukraine.”
Fico’s victory, while he may have trouble forming a stable coalition with other parties in the EU, will alarm Washington and Brussels as it could add another anti-Ukraine voice to the EU along with Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
Fico opposes sanctions against Russia, and claims that Nato’s support for Ukraine undermines the national sovereignty.
Orban wrote in X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday: “Guess Who’s Back! Robert Fico deserves congratulations for his undisputed victory in the Slovak Parliamentary elections. It’s always good to work with a patriot.”
Slovak analyst Milan Nic of the German Council on Foreign Relations said: “The west must not lose Slovakia, and should engage constructively with Fico. However, I believe that Moscow will celebrate what it sees as cracks appearing in Europe’s East, and Hungary being no longer alone.”
The result of the snap elections marks a remarkable political revival for populist Fico. He remains embroiled in several corruption investigations and survived last year an attempt from opponents to lift his immunity as a member of parliament.
In 2018, he was forced to step down as Prime Minister amid massive street protests that were sparked by his fiancée’s murder and the murder of an investigative journalist.
Fico must now find allies in the Slovakia fragmented parties to prevent another hung Parliament. Since May, the country has been run by a technocratic administration appointed by Zuzana Kaputova following the collapse of the previous coalition.
Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas, a former premier who came in third place with 14,7% of the vote, could be a kingmaker for a new coalition. Pellegrini, who replaced Fico as prime minister in the office, fell out with Fico and then left Smer to found Hlas.
Nic stated that “there seems to be a way for Fico” to form a coalition if he teamed up with a smaller, ultranationalist party while repairing his relationship with Pellegrini. Three parties would hold 79 out of 150 seats.
Nic stated that Fico might offer Pellegrini the chance to run next year for the Slovak presidential election with Smer backing. Nic said that the race became open when Caputova, a popular candidate, announced in June that she would not run for re-election.
Former Slovak Foreign Minister Pavol Demes said: “Fico won’t be as strong or Orban but the EU is already struggling to maintain unity in Ukraine. I am sure that international policymakers are worried about Fico’s ability to fulfill all of his rhetoric during his campaign.”
Simecka (39), had called for a stronger EU unity in order to assist Ukraine, and warned against moving the smaller Slovakia into Hungary’s pro Russian orbit.
Fico stated on Sunday that he would continue to help Ukraine in a “humanitarian way” and take part, eventually, in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. However, he did not provide any more military assistance for the time being.
Simecka stated on Sunday that this result was “bad for the country”. It would be “even more bad” if Simecka and others did not stop Fico’s return to office. Pellegrini welcomed the party’s victory and promised to “take the right decision” on how to be the kingmaker.
Simecka, Fico’s nominally left-wing Smer, and the exit polls seemed to confirm that Simecka had made a late surge.
Demes said that “younger and modern progressive Slovaks” will now have a crazy hungover after they started their celebrations late Saturday in Bratislava when the exit polls were declared.
Nic stated that the failure of exit-pollsters to predict the results showed that “Smer votes did not speak to them after they voted because they view them as being part of the mainstream political movement”.
Beata Balogova wrote in an article on Sunday that Fico had won by “spreading terror”. “He convinced enough people that liberalism and human rights are a greater threat to citizens’ safety than widespread corruption or sentiments for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s regime.”
Fico’s far-right Republika Party, which had scored 4,75 percent and was expected to support him after the election, is one of four parties that failed to reach the threshold of 5 percent to enter the parliament. The Slovak National Party (SNS), which shares Fico’s anti-migration message but secured 5.6 percent, was the only party to achieve this.
Fico confirmed Sunday that, if he were to form a new government in central Europe, he would immediately reinstate border controls with Hungary. This comes amid a renewed debate on illegal migration.