Russia’s decision to not extend the Black Sea grain agreement is final

Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General, has expressed his regret at Russia’s decision of terminating the Black Sea grain agreement. Guterres said that hundreds of millions people will suffer from hunger and consumers who are already struggling to pay their bills as a result of the Kremlin’s action.

The agreement was intended to ease a food shortage caused by the Russian blockade on Ukrainian ports, which had frozen millions if not billions of tonnes of grain exported around the globe.

Guterres stated that grain prices are already increasing on the market – having dropped 35% during the agreement – following the news on Sunday that Russia has terminated the deal.

Recep Tayyip Erdoan, the Turkish president, had said earlier that he hoped to see progress in the UN talks on keeping the agreement alive. Guterres’s statement, however, seemed like an admission that the voluntary, three-monthly renewable deal brokered by Turkey and the UN last year, is over.

Tass, the Russian state-run news agency, quoted a senior Russian UN official as saying that the decision had been made. Sergei Lavrov and Hakan Fidan were due to meet on Monday, the day before, to discuss this deal.

Guterres expressed his regret for the Russian decision. After weeks of reserving criticism in order to renew the deal, he was clear that he would not accept Moscow’s explanations as to why the agreement had been terminated, including its loss of Russian markets.

According to the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, and Russian Fertiliser Producers’ Association, “Russian exports are nearing full recovery.”

Secretary General added that he secured two US waivers which exempted Russia for sanctions on food exports. He also obtained a British waiver regarding insurance on Russian ships and an EU waiver that allowed the defrosting of Russian fertilisers. A bespoke agreement was also set up that allowed the subsidiary of the Russia Agriculture Bank to have access to the international Swift Payment system.

Guterres expressed his “deep disappointment” that his proposals were not taken into consideration. “Today’s Russian Federation decision will strike a major blow to the people who are in need all over the world,” Guterres said. It will not, however, stop us from facilitating the free access of food products and fertilizers to the global market for both Ukraine as well as the Russian Federation.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, said that he had spoken with Guterres about resuming Black Sea shipments on Monday. In his video nightly address, Zelenskiy stated that Russia has no right to decide who is able to feed themselves and the grain initiative can operate without Moscow’s involvement.

Erdogan stated that he believes Putin wants to continue the deal and will discuss it with him in person when they meet again in August.

All parties agree that if the suspension continues for more than a couple of days, it will be difficult to restart the agreement, which means grain prices may rise. Ukraine has suggested that it may try to export grain via ship, in defiance of Russia’s naval blockade. This proposal will worry western diplomats worried about escalation.

“Even if the Russian Federation does not exist, we must do everything to use this Black Sea Corridor. Serhiyi Nkyforov, Ukrainian press secretary Serhiyi Nykyforov quoted Zelenskiy. “We received approaches from companies and shipowners. They told us that they were ready. “If Ukraine allows them to leave and Turkey continues to allow them to pass, everyone will be ready to supply grain.”

The White House stated that Russia’s suspension will “worsen food security and harm many millions”, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling the action “unconscionable”.

James Cleverly (UK Foreign Secretary) condemned Russia’s action. He stated: “Russia has been obstructing the proper functioning of the deal for many months.” By doing this, Russia serves its own interests, and ignores the needs of those in other countries, including the poorest, who pay higher food prices.

The UN estimated that without the grain provided in the [deal], millions of people could be undernourished worldwide. “We have been very clear that our sanctions are aimed at Russia’s military machine, not its food and fertiliser sector.”

Russia and the West will accuse each of the other of ruining the deal, as they fight to convince the global south that it is not their fault for the inevitable increase in food prices.

Vladimir Putin, who is scheduled to host an African-Russian Economic Summit in St Petersburg this month, is worried about facing public criticism.

Paul Mashatile has suggested that Putin should not attend the Brics Summit in South Africa, next month, as he may be arrested under a warrant from the International Criminal Court. “For us, his not coming is best. “The Russians aren’t happy,” he said.

UN source: A joint coordination centre (JCC), which works with UN, Turkish and Russian delegations, and Ukrainian and Ukrainian delegations on decisions regarding the movement of ships and inspection, has been under increasing pressure.

Source: “JCC faced more pressure and challenges and that was in relation to the execution of the parallel agreement signed by Russia and UN. They felt dissatisfied how that deal was executed, there were more arguments here about the operations – the way the ships were allowed to participate, the way they were inspected. At all phases of operation, there was more tension.”

The UK accused Russia destabilizing the agreement by slowing down inspections of ships departing Ukraine, from an average 10 per day last year to just two per day in recent month. The UK said that grain exports fell 29% in April, and 66% more in May. Russia, meanwhile, has been blocking new ships from joining the agreement since late summer.

It was always a politically-driven agreement. The agreement isn’t legally binding, so its implementation depends on the political will of those who signed it.

Cleverly, the UN’s security council chairperson, was to preside over a meeting on Monday afternoon where they would discuss Ukraine and grain crisis. This month, the UK is the president of the UN Security Council, so the agenda will be set by the UK. The foreign ministers from Ukraine, Poland France and Germany are expected to attend.

Murithi Mutiga is the director of International Crisis Group’s Africa program. He said that the impact of the failure of the grain agreement in Africa would be significant. The grain deal did not reach the poorer countries, as originally envisioned by the UN. However, the grain was used to stabilize the supply of grains on the global market and to keep prices stable.

Many countries in Africa are experiencing double-digit inflation, and some have already seen protests due to rising fuel and food prices. The economic crisis that multiple countries are facing will be exacerbated if the deal is not revived. Prices could rise even more, which would lead to further unrest.