Soybean farmers in Minnesota grapple with China trade war fallout

Across southern Minnesota, soyabean farmers like Matt Purfeerst have just completed their harvest. The family farm’s grain bins brim with around 100,000 bushels, each capable of earning roughly 10 dollars. This year, though, there is deep uncertainty about what comes next. The Chinese market, once the most significant overseas buyer in value and volume for American soyabeans, has vanished due to an escalating trade war between the US and China.

American farmers are left seeking alternative markets. Last year, China purchased more than 12 billion dollars’ worth of US soyabeans, comprising nearly half of American exports. Now, with all transactions halted, those bins risk sitting full for far too long—a scenario no farmer welcomes. Purfeerst highlights the urgency: “We are going to have to find a home for those soyabeans sometime soon. They will not stay in our bins forever.”

In recent weeks, the White House has promised relief for affected farmers, but a plan is yet to materialise. Delays stemming from a government shutdown have left many feeling exposed. While political leaders discuss broader policy, costs continue to rise for essential farming inputs—fertiliser, seed, energy—while crop prices stagnate or fall, exacerbating pressures on rural businesses already fighting narrow margins.

Although Minnesota’s location offers some options—local crushing facilities, nearby rail links, and access to barge routes—farmers in more remote areas have fewer alternatives. Many feel abandoned by the loss of a long-trusted market, forced to store unsold crops at risk of spoilage and price fluctuation. Holding grain in the hope of improved prices is a substantial gamble. “If a trade deal is struck tomorrow with positive news for soyabeans, we could see the market leap from 10 to 12 dollars almost overnight. But if there is no deal, the price could fall to 9 dollars. The volatility is immense,” says Purfeerst.

Industry leaders have warned for months that excluding China would inflict serious financial damage. The American Soybean Association called on President Trump to resolve the dispute, warning that farmers stand on a precipice. The situation echoes difficulties encountered during previous trade wars, notably in 2018, but this time the stakes feel even higher as Brazil and Argentina expand their own exports to China, entrenching new supply patterns.

Emergency payments are under discussion in Congress, a move many farming advocates describe as a temporary fix. Most producers would prefer open global markets to tariffs and government bailouts, recognising that long-term relationships with major buyers are crucial for future viability. Some sense that greater domestic demand is needed, but immediate relief is critical for those now caught with unsold stock and mounting costs. As the rural economic outlook grows ever more precarious, soyabean farmers anxiously await news that could decide their financial future.