The term “asteroid mining” might sound like something out of science fiction, conjuring up images of workers hacking at floating rock fragments in a galaxy in the distant future, or perhaps in some time or century, but it is a “science fact”. Some of its proponents — including a variety of ambitious private commercial companies — argue that, as Earth’s resources diminish, humanity can turn outwards and use spacecrafts and robots for mining minerals in space. They are also counting down the days until they launch missions. Some of them plan to do this as soon as this year.
The debate has moved from simple questions like “when” towards issues that are far more controversial. AstroForge’s secretive “flyby” of an asteroid planned for this coming year is, for instance, causing increasing consternation in the space industry and among its competitors. Critics are concerned that its goal to prospect for metals will accelerate a trend of covert missions into the solar systems to exploit regulatory loopholes to make huge profits, while returning little benefit to humanity and science.
A three-stage procedure is followed by the playbook of asteroid mining. First, an organisation will try to identify suitable asteroids to mine using remote sensing and flybys. The viability of an asteroid depends on many factors, including its composition, distance to Earth, time required to reach it, and speed. After exploration, companies will take a closer view at a target and collect samples, as well as dig under the surface, to determine if there is enough material for extraction. Then comes extraction for which different methods are being developed.
Asteroid mining could be a lucrative business due to the demand for metals like cobalt and iron. These metals are used in a wide range of industries. Batteries for electric vehicle parts, catalytic convertors, solar panels, and wind turbines are all examples of products that will be increasingly important as the world moves towards clean energy.
Asterank, a company that tracks the potential profits from the more than 600 000 asteroids tracked by Nasa (the American space agency), estimates that the top ten asteroids could collectively return $1,35 trillion. Some believe that if the first missions are successful the new sector will completely disrupt the world economy.
Mitch Hunter Scullion, the chief executive of Asteroid Mining Corporation (a British asteroid miner), said that although progress had been made in the prospecting phase, there was more to be done. It’s like saying that you have been to New York just because you saw skyscrapers from the air.
The fact that asteroid mining is still a hypothetical can be attributed to exorbitant costs, and the long timelines involved. Investors who want to invest in asteroids mining companies will have to wait a minimum of ten years for any return.
In 2012, two American companies, Planetary Resources & Deep Space Industries, made the first attempts at mining asteroids. Jeff Bezos of Amazon, an avid space enthusiast, imagined a future where all heavy industry would take place off-Earth, and Nasa would fund research into asteroid mines. The failure of either company in the end to create independent platforms for profitability led many investors to abandon ship. In 2018, Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries were acquired by software companies. These companies are no longer considered the greatest hopes for space mining.
The next generation is more cautious. Asteroid Mining Corporation raised over $1 million during its pre-seed funding and now is raising $6.5 millions. The company is investing in robots which will be critical to asteroid mines but also have other immediate uses such as a robot which can climb walls and scale ships. Origin Space of China launched a satellite in 2021 to monitor asteroids near Earth. It is also developing a robot for space mining.
The space race is not just about companies; it also involves state-affiliated organizations. Nasa’s Osiris Rex mission returned to Earth a Bennu asteroid sample in September last year. ‘s Psyche is currently travelling to an asteroid with a metal-rich composition named.
In some cases, businesses and government agencies work together. Nasa and UK Space Agency collaborate with companies in the midst of a larger industry trend toward private funding for space exploration. This is indicated by Elon Musk’s growing influence.
The capsule that contains a sample taken from the asteroid Bennu, seen just after it touched down in the Utah desert in September 2023.
AstroForge announced that it would launch a craft into deep space this year, the part beyond the Earth-Moon System, to fly by its target asteroid and take high-resolution pictures of the surface. This mission, if successful, will be the first commercially-driven deep-space mission to succeed and bring the industry closer to potential financial rewards. AstroForge has so far refused to reveal which asteroid they are targeting, even though Matt Gialich (38), its co-founder, chief executive and CEO, stated: “At AstroForge we believe in open communication and transparency.”
Hunter-Scullion (also 38) said that he believed AstroForge could be violating international law if they refused to say where the ship was headed. He added: “Claim competitive advantage, but then claim you don’t wish anyone to know because of competing interests, is highly suspect.”
Commercial activity in outer space is permitted, but Article XI, 1967 United Nations Outer Space Treaty, requires disclosure of “nature, conduct and results” for such activities.
Rossana Deplano is an expert in international space law from the University of Leicester. She said that “[Astroforge]’s] behavior will set a dangerous precedent.” The treaty covers all space activities, including flybys. AstroForge refused to comment.
The rules are not enforced and there are no penalties. However, the recent secretive developments at AstroForge indicate that regulators should discuss the need for penalties and how to enforce them.
Many observers think that private companies must recognise their responsibilities extend beyond financial gain. Sarah Boyall said, “The opportunities are many, including unlocking deep-space exploration, assisting in the creation of new tools and technology, supporting a human presence on the surface of the moon and bringing benefit back to Earth.”
Asteroid mining is expected to become a profitable business in 2024. If private space companies don’t engage with the scientific community and regulation, they could be taking a huge step backwards and risking international discord.