Superbugs set to inflict catastrophic global economic losses by 2050

Superbugs could cause a dramatic surge in global deaths and inflict economic losses nearing $2 trillion each year by 2050, new research reveals. Projections from a UK government-backed study, led by the Center for Global Development thinktank, indicate that antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could suppress global GDP by $1.7 trillion annually over the next quarter-century if decisive action is not taken. The United States, United Kingdom, and European Union appear especially vulnerable to the escalating threat of drug-resistant infections.

The study outlines a deeply worrying scenario, as official development aid is being slashed across major economies. Aid reductions in the US, UK, and Europe — including the recent axing of funding for the Fleming fund dedicated to fighting AMR in lower-income countries — are set to undermine global efforts to contain resistance rates. The lead author, Anthony McDonnell, warned that the recent aid cuts could accelerate resistance globally in line with the most dire forecasts, threatening even those nations that have previously kept AMR in check.

Countries such as China, the US, the EU, Japan, and the UK stand to witness massive annual GDP losses by mid-century: projections suggest China could lose up to $722 billion a year, the US nearly $296 billion, the EU $187 billion, Japan $65.7 billion, and the UK $58.6 billion. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts a 60 percent rise in AMR-related deaths by 2050, with annual fatalities from resistant bacteria reaching 1.34 million in the US and 184,000 in the UK alone.

Drug-resistant infections dramatically increase both the financial and human costs of healthcare. Longer and more intense hospital stays, combined with costlier second-line medicines and complex care requirements, make such infections twice as expensive to treat. The study estimates that global health spending on AMR could climb by nearly $176 billion per year, with treatment costs soaring to $3.7 billion in the UK and $57 billion in the US by 2050.

Rising rates of resistance would also reduce workforce numbers, with the UK’s workforce shrinking by 0.8 percent, the EU’s by 0.6 percent, and the US by 0.4 percent. However, investment in new antibiotics and improved treatment could prompt significant economic gains, adding $156.2 billion a year to the US economy and $12 billion to the UK economy by 2050.

With AMR on the rise, policy reforms, public education campaigns on antibiotic misuse, and the roll-out of innovative treatments are critical. A spokesperson for the UK government confirmed that its 10-year health plan addresses AMR as a major threat and highlighted commitments including reduced antibiotic use in livestock, new vaccine development, and international partnerships.