Analysis finds that UK faces a ‘crunch-point’ due to delays at Hinkley Point C and the closure of other nuclear plants.
New research warns that delays to French-built nuclear reactors will put the UK at risk of blackouts in 2028.
The country will face a “crunch” point due to a “perfect storm” of higher demand caused by net zero, the closing of existing nuclear power plants and delays in the delivery of Hinkley Point C, which is being constructed by French state-owned company EDF.
New government data shows that consumers’ bills will be increased by £2.8bn in 2028, or about £100 for every household, to pay power plant owners who provide generation capacity.
Public First’s analysis predicts the UK will have a demand for electricity that exceeds baseload capacity at peak times by 7.5GW by 2028. This is equivalent to power consumption by over 7 million households.
The ageing British infrastructure will close in the next few years, causing a shortfall. The UK’s final coal-fired electricity station, , Ratcliffe-on-Soar is set to close this year.
The decommissioning of Heysham II, Torness and Hartlepool will take place in March 2028.
The demand for electricity will also increase as Britain moves away from fossil fuels, and adopts technologies such as electric cars and heat pumps.
The warning comes in the midst of a political dispute between Westminster and Paris about who pays for cost overruns at the long-delayed Hinkley Point C reactor. It was originally scheduled to open by 2025, but now won’t be online until 2031 at the earliest.
The UK government insisted that the EDF-led project must be privately funded.
Hinkley Point C in Somerset is currently being built at a cost of £46bn, which is equivalent to £700 per person in the UK.
Public First’s alert is highly political, as it suggests that the UK may face power shortages with resulting price increases, or even blackouts around the time of general elections.
Drax Power commissioned the report Mind the Gap, Exploring Britain’s Energy Crunch. The controversial Drax power plant, which once burned coal, is now fueled largely by imported wood chips from “sustainable” North American forests.
Drax generates around 4pc (or the UK’s total electricity) but it is dependent on taxpayer subsidies. Last year, Drax received 617 million pounds sterling in subsidies. However, these subsides will end in 2027. Drax lobbying politicians for an extension of those subsidies.
The report stated that the UK will become even more dependent on power imported from France, Norway, and other European countries via undersea cables.
Britain is already dependent on European neighbours to supply electricity. Government figures reveal that in the first half 2023, 13 percent of UK electricity was imported. This amounted to import bills totalling £2 billion.
In the end, this will cost Britain billions in exports and support rival power industries.
Public First’s report stated that the estimated shortfall in the generation capacity by the year 2028 will be “more than 2.5GW, or three times as much power as Sizewell C (the UK’s next planned nuclear project led by EDF) is capable of providing. By 2022 the gap would have nearly doubled to 4GW.
Daisy Powell-Chandler is the head of energy and environmental at Public First. She said that “setbacks” in bringing new offshore wind and nuclear online, retirement of generation assets, and an increase in power demand in 2028 will lead to a severe energy shortage.
“But the challenge to keep the lights on isn’t set in stone. Policymakers have a range of levers that they can pull in order to ensure we have a secure, diverse and sustainable energy system for the future.”
Richard Gwilliam is the director of Drax’s carbon capture program. He said that the research shows the UK faces a crunch in power generation, as the demand for secure dispatchable capacity and baseload will outstrip supply, leaving the UK dependent on intermittent sources of generation.
To keep the lights on, a part of the solution is to extend the life of existing generation assets.
The PS2.8bn that will be added to the bills of 2028 comes from the latest government capacity auction, whose early results were announced on Tuesday.
The scheme pays power companies to simply keep their stations open for generation, regardless of whether or not they generate any electricity. The power companies can make even more money by selling the electricity they produce.
Sam Hollister, energy analyst at LCP Delta said that the predicted shortages in energy by 2028 would mean the final figures set a new record.
He said, “We expect an increasingly tight situation as power plants retire and the electricity demand increases.”
Juliet Phillips is a UK energy expert at E3G. An NGO that campaigns for greener energy. She agreed with the UK’s energy crisis, but said it was a mistake to rely on new nuclear plants like Hinkley, or burning more trees as Drax suggests.
She said that “rolling out renewables quickly is the best way to boost domestic energy security.”
“At the time, it is essential to concentrate on technologies that help balance the system as well as provide backup. They include solutions that are often overlooked, such as demand flexibility services and battery storage. The right combination can replace nuclear power as a “baseload” in the system.”
“The UK is one of the most reliable and varied energy systems in the World, with renewables making up 40% of our electricity compared to only 7pc in 2010,” said a Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson.
Our significant investment in clean power, with an additional £100bn to be expected by 2030 for green industries of tomorrow, will help further safeguard against potential energy crises.