The future of Scottish onshore wind development under threat

The UK government’s plan to support onshore wind power growth in Scotland beyond 2030 has raised significant concerns among key developers. Despite projections that onshore wind capacity in Scotland will double by the close of the decade, figures show almost no further expansion in the five years following. Developers are warning this sharp decline in planned growth amounts to a de facto ban on future projects.

A group of 13 companies, including Low Carbon, EDP Renewables, and CWP Energy, have issued an open letter to Energy Secretary Ed Miliband urging a re-evaluation of the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan. Released in December, the policy outlines an 11-gigawatt increase in Scottish onshore wind capacity by 2030. However, the plan limits additional growth to just 0.7 gigawatts from 2030 to 2035.

Critics argue these figures will not only act as targets but effectively serve as caps on new projects. The limits are expected to dictate decisions made by the National Energy System Operator (Neso) when allocating grid connections. Projects currently in the planning stages with connection dates around 2030 may find their efforts blocked if deemed unnecessary under these restrictions.

Developers highlight that these caps jeopardise not only ongoing investments but also billions worth of future funding. Projects with existing connection agreements could be pushed out of the queue despite aligning with the government’s clean energy targets. This places significant financial commitments at risk and could deter new investment in clean energy infrastructure.

Sources suggest the policy limitations may stem from network constraints, with cabling bottlenecks between Scotland and England causing capacity issues. While the government plans expand onshore wind development in England and Wales, Scotland appears to face stricter constraints, despite its leading role in the sector.

A representative of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero stated there are no strict limits on renewable energy expansion and emphasised that any viable projects above the stated capacity could still proceed if network capacity allows. Nevertheless, developers remain sceptical, warning that the industry’s momentum in Scotland could be severely curtailed by the proposed framework and its unintended market consequences.