A disruptive technology that comes out of nowhere every few years completely changes the future of global energy systems, slamming us into our awareness like a loud thunderclap.
Around 2009-2011, shale fracking was a major breakthrough that confounded OPEC, Russia and the opinion establishment, which still believed in peak oil.
In a decade, America went from a serious energy deficit to being the world’s top oil and gas exporter. The dollar roared back. The dollar came roaring back.
The current rush to “white” hydrogen is reminiscent of the past.
We suddenly realize that vast natural hydrogen reserves lie beneath our feet. They can be easily extracted at prices that are cheaper than the competition and ultimately lower in price than methane.
Scientists have argued for years that geological pockets of hydrogen can be exploited in greater quantities than previously believed.
The hydrogen content of the perpetually burning gas in Chimaera, Turkey (which is believed to be the origin of the Olympic Flame) reaches 11.3pc. Los Fuegos Eternos, in the Philippines, is also a marvel.
Since 2012, it has been known that the hydrogen under the village of Bourakebougou is 98pc pure. In the 1980s, the site was discovered when a local smoker was blown into the face by the explosion.
Professor Alain Prinzhofer of the Institute of Physics, Paris, found that the flow of gas remained constant with time. The pressure rose even higher. This confirmed a hypothesis that hydrogen could keep renewing itself underground by a chemical process.
The world is now acting on this insight and needs hydrogen.
In April, the US Geological Survey reported that there was probably enough hydrogen available in the subsurface of Earth to satisfy global demand for hundreds of years.
The US Energy Department has developed plans to kick-start the industry. It calls the potential of the technology “astronomical”.
Viacheslav Zgonnik is a Ukrainian geologist who believes that white geologic hydrogen could be so abundant and cheap, it would dominate the energy market.
“We believe that we can achieve $1 per kilo on the long run and provide 24/7 baseload power. The material can be compressed and stored in steel tanks. “It’s not expensive at all,” he said.
The subsidies for green (from electrolysis), and blue (natural gas with CO2 capture) variants are staggering.
Green hydrogen is currently priced between $3 and $4. The cost will decrease with increased scale, but it will be difficult to get below $2. You currently lose 70% of the energy during the production process.
Are the EU, UK and Japan misguided in their hydrogen strategy?
Is the European trend for drilling bans an eco-own-goal of sorts? Hydrogen wells are drilled with the same equipment as oil and gas, but some modifications may be necessary because hydrogen can corrode metal pipes and leak easily.
“We can scale up faster with green hydrogen without using the land surface you need for renewables.
It makes more sense to maximize the potential of natural hydrogen. If you look at these grants, all of them are going to green hydrogen. “This needs to be corrected quickly,” he said.
The wildcat drilling of hydrogen today is similar to the early days fracking was done in Texas and Pennsylvania.
In May, researchers from GeoResources and Francaise De l’Energie made the biggest discovery in Europe to date. They found 15pc of hydrogen at a depth 1,100 meters.
The gas is not corrosive and it can be easily separated. Next, drill down to 3,000 meters where purity should reach 90%.
Hydrogen is made by a chemical reaction that occurs constantly in the crust and mantle of the Earth. It is also produced when water reacts iron-rich minerals.
As it ascends, the majority of it is eaten up by bacteria or transformed into long-chain hydrocarbons when bumping into fossil deposits. Scientists assumed that very little would survive the journey. Now, geologists have proven that they were mistaken.
Gold Hydrogen, the leader in the global hydrogen rush, has accumulated at 500 meters with an 80pc concentration of gold.
Australia has created the most advanced regulatory structure in the world. Natural Hydrogen Energy (co-founded by Dr Zgonnik) is drilling in Nebraska. China has begun exploration in Inner Mongolia.
“We didn’t find much hydrogen before, because we weren’t looking for” said Professor Jon Gluyas of Durham University. He is a world-renowned expert in natural hydrogen. The mass spectrometers, sensors and other devices were not programmed to detect hydrogen in the normal drilling.
It’s not easy to detect because it is a colourless and odourless substance. “You won’t find it in oil, because the hydrogen bubbling from below reacts to it,” said he.
They did detect hydrogen in the Soviet Union, but only because they believed (falsely) that it was an oil and gas deposit marker.
It was found in large quantities across the country. This is likely to be the template for the rest the world.
Just as at the beginning of fracking, the big oil and natural gas drillers watch from the sidelines. Investors want to know that drilling for hydrogen can be done on purpose, rather than by accident.
It is likely that the breakthrough will occur within a few months or a couple of years.
Costs will determine if it takes off. Will drilling for hydrogen be cheaper than for methane? And will the purity of the gas be high enough to be worth it? He said that “most people believe 10pc to be the minimum.”
Geothermal energy is a good example of how costs are traded off. It is important to find that sweet spot, where drilling costs are not excessive and the yield justifies the drilling. The limit of drilling is likely to be around 3,000 metres.
Hydrogen is a fuel that has an incalculable and little-understood advantage over fossil.
The borehole can theoretically produce forever, just like the geothermal. The decline curve for oil and gas is not applicable, nor do you need to redrill. This changes the economics drastically of the project,” said Dr Zgonnik.
Prof Gluyas believes that natural hydrogen will soon replace dirty grey hydrogen (which accounts for 3pc of the global CO2 emissions), which is used in refineries and chemical industries, mainly from natural gas produced by steam reforming. This doubles the price. He said that the cost of natural hydrogen would be reduced.
Depending on the carbon prices, future uses of hydrogen will include replacing fossil feedstocks in fertilisers and steel.
“Nobody yet has made a commercially viable discovery that is ready for the marketplace. “As soon as a commercial discovery is made, it will be a frenzy,” said he.
Gas explorers who drill holes in the earth could be the next billionaires. Surprises never cease.